The Week that Was..Let the Wild Rumpus Begin Week 5

NFFLers:
For those of you with strong affiliations to baseball teams in the Playoffs - enjoy. Your compatriots in Greater Cleveland will watch admiringly as our former stars (CC Sabathia, Casey Blake, and Cliff Lee) have success outside of the CLE. Its a sad commentary, but it should take none of the joy from Thalheimer (Phillies), Solomon (Red Sox), and PKay (Dodgers). Play Ball gentlemen...

We are now through 4 weeks - or 1/3 of the regular season in this the second year of the NFFL. There is a marked difference that has set in on this campaign that I don't remember last year: Parity. I assumed expanding the league from 12 to 14 teams would make the draft tougher, but I did not anticipate that it would level out the whole league the way it has. It makes sense if you consider that the two additional teams, well run as they are by Buffalo and Solomon, have 24 players that would otherwise be free agents in Year One. In practice it means:

- the waiver wire has less talent than the Cleveland Browns bench;
- the need for trades is more important;
- Spencer posts, for all to see, ""CAN I GET A WAIVER OR A TRADE IN THIS LEAGUE?""
- the draft meant way more than any of us realized when it was happening.

I applaud Spencer's unfettered frustration because I share it. However, its the last point above that is the one takeaway from this post that I hope you remember next August when I'm bugging you to agree to a draft time. Even if you view the draft as dumb luck there is no denying its importance now. I now think that the draft - in a league as deep as this one - the defining difference maker over last year. To see if this is true, I spent some time looking at our 2009 draft results and the points that have emerged for different teams from different selections. It led to the following comparison of draft ranking versus power ranking.

Here is my logic in developing a Draft Ranking:
- points earned by players - regardless of whether they are starters - or even still on the roster, count for the team drafting him;
- each round of the draft is not equal; the first two/three rounds are easy and largely scripted. The later rounds decide the fate of a season.
- I assume, for better or worse, that a team drafting well at the end of the draft should be given a weighted advantage over teams that only do well in the beginning of the draft;
- I grouped the rounds of the draft as follows: The Headlines 1,2,3. The Backbone 4, 5, 6. The Hidden Gems 7, 8, 9. The Shockers 10, 11, 12.
- As a crude method of weighting each round grouping, I used a points multiplier as follows: The Headliners x 1; The Backbone x 2; The Hidden Gems x 3; The Shockers x 4. In other words, a kicker drafted in the 11th round that has scored 50 total points, will be four times more valuable than a kicker drafted in the 3rd round that has scored 50 points.

Here are the results (with current Power Rankings in parenthesis).:

1. Sims Adams (9)
2. Carolina (6)
3. Buffalo (5)
4. Padnos (1)
5. Dos (7)
6. Solomon (3)
7. PKay (12)
8. Dynamic (4)
9. Thalheimer (2)
10. PSC (10)
11. Sims MM (8)
12. The Rail (13)
13. Smelters (11)
14. Ansam (14)

For the majority of our teams: Buffalo, Padnos, Dos, Solomon, PSC, Sims, The Rail, Smelters, Ansam, draft results and power rankings are within a few levels of one another. For 5 teams they aren't. For both Sims Adams and Thalheimer, in fact, the draft ranking seems irrelevant. In those two cases however, there may be mitigating factors that explain the disparity. For example, Bruce Keizler's brother Larry performed the draft for SAR, and subsequently left day-to-day management with Bruce. I will let you come to your own conclusions. I am just saying.... Thalheimer has had the opposite issue and been able to overcome a substandard draft, mainly because their free agent pickups have produced admirably.

My original hypothesis was not just that the draft was a good predictor of team performance - that would have been relatively obvious. It was that in a 14 team league with 12 players, the draft means considerably more than it does in a 12 team league with 12 players. The only way to prove whether this is the case would be to look back a year at a similar point in time and do the same analysis. I will likely do that later this season - but not today unless Smelters owner Nagusky springs for an NFFL intern, which if it happens, means Federal Metal is on its way to losing the well-earned moniker of "Worlds Greatest Ingot Maker."

So for those of us mired in the bottom half of the league with nothing but a substandard draft to blame, what to we do? Easy. Trade gentlemen. Cut a deal. Haggle. Bargain. PKay, Smelters, Carolina, and SAR have each entered into a trade so far. I cannot say its made a difference for anyone, but its a start...

Now onto a combined look back and a look ahead - this time in reverse order of the Power Rankings:

14. Ansam. A 30 point defeat at Dynamic ended a 1 game winning streak. The bloom may be off the rose for freshman QB Sanchez as defenses now know how to pick him off almost every time he drops back to pass. Ray Rice now appears to be the most serviceable Ansam member, outside of Derrick Mason, who remains mired on Ansam's bench despite his high ranking among receivers. Week 5 features a tall order against league power Padnos. A win here would require a movie remake along the lines of Rudi or Hoosiers.

13. The Rail. This Kentucky Wildcat fanatic lost to Smelters last week - giving the defending league champ his first win of the year. When you look at why, you don't need to look past Rail's backfield of McFadden, Coffey, and Moore - 3 backups. Yikes. In week 5 The Rail takes on Metalico Buffalo and is a 1-pt dog. The Rail made an outstanding waiver wire move for Rashard Mendenhall which solves the problem of having the Darren McFadden anywhere near his starting lineup.

12. PKay. Spencer and Larry lost late to Buffalo last week in a game they thought they'd win right up to the end of the late Sunday games. Another heart breaker that leaves PKay dizzy at 1-3. Week 5 features the Battle for Southern California against SAR. PKay is a small favorite, but the matchups in this game could swing it in either direction.

11. Smelters. Nagusky got off the duck last week with a win against The Rail. His wishbone is starting to round into form with Steve Slaton finally joining the ranks of the living/breathing RB's. Smelters would have broken 100 pts had they started all world Brandon Marshall instead of local dingbat Braylon Edwards. In week 5, Smelters is favored to be the leagues high scorer in a game against former colleague PSC. The wishbone is at it again and based on matchups, could be huge this week. One word of caution: Smelters has chosen the Bills D against Cleveland, which is bad karma. Stay tuned.

10. PSC. Phillip Rivers put up 21 points in week 4 for PSC, but the rest of the team took the week off in a 60 point performance. 60 points is just not going to win very often, and they didn't in a 22-point loss to Solomon. Week 5 features a big matchup against Nagusky. CBS predicts a 7 point victory for Smelters, but few things would be sweeter than a win over the former boss.

9. SAR. Keizler rode the back of Ronnie Brown and the Bengals D to a week 4 pounding of your Commish to get their first win. Whether they can beat PKay in the aforementioned Battle for So Cal is a function of whether their players do as well as they should. With Hines Ward v Detroit and Willis McGahee against Cincinnati, you'd think SAR could score some points. We'll see - its a 1-4 record for the loser of this game.

8. Sims MM. When Sims' receiving corp of John Knox, Don Driver, and Andy Johnson combine for 14 points, its unlikely Sims can win. They did just that in week 4 and as a result lost by 32 to Carolina. In week 5, Sims has some brutal bye week issues and appears likely to start 1 man down against league leading Dynamic. Regardless, the matchups in week 5 are in Sims favor and they are predicted to tie DMS ending their 4 game win streak.

7. Federal Metal Dos. Dos lost by 20 in Week 4 to SAR. 82 points will win some weeks - just not when your opponent puts up 102. So your Commish has to regroup against (gulp) Thalheimer in week 5. Dos is an underdog, but could benefit tremendously from having both Buffalo running backs going against Cleveland - the worst defense since the 1939 French. Or the Buffalo RB's could be a bust behind the worst offensive line since Nagusky's college roomate PJ Mooney spent St. Paddy's Day asking coeds "Do you have any Irish in you? Want some?".

6. Carolina. Normally 95 points in a 30 point win would be something to crow about. But when 42 of those points come from your D, you have to be wondering how sustainable this is...Thats exactly whats going through Carolina's mind this week going into week 5 against mighty Solomon. CBS predicts a 5 point win for Carolina, but when you look at the matchups you have to think Carolina could put up 130 this week. Peterson against the Rams D? Romo against KC? DeSean Jackson against TB? Its not a good week to be playing Carolina.

5. Metalico Buffalo. League newbie Buffalo continues his mastery of team management. Check that. Buffalo won in week 4 by 5 points to get to 2-1-1 which sounds cool. But Buffalo left 57! points on the bench. That kind of squad selection will cost wins down the road, but Ostendorf escaped week 4 with the win. Week 5 features a matchup at home against league lowboy The Rail. CBS predicts a tight one, which seems justified, especially if half of Buffalo's output is on the bench.

4. Dynamic. 76 points is not a great day, but it was enough to win by 30 against Ansam. Dynamic and SAR have scored close to the same total points this year. DMS is 4-0 and SAR is 1-3: DuCuvna may be doing it with smoke and mirrors. DMS is predicted to tie 78-78 in a sister-kisser against Sims in week 5. Is this the week DMS joins the rest of us with at least 1 loss?

3. Solomon. Last week was closer than the score indicated for Solomon in a 22 point win against PSC. At 3-1, Solomon is hitting stride at just the right time. Week 5 features a brutal game against Carolina, so their stride becomes pretty important.

2. Thalheimer. 97-points is almost always a good week - just not when the opponent is Padnos and their total is 107. Thats exactly what happened in week 4 to East Coast legend Thalheimer. Thalheimer's output was, perhaps, a sign of things to come as Maurice Sims Walker and the Saints D - free agency pickups both - put up over 50 combined points in week 4. Week 5 is against your Commish in a game he'd lose if your Commish could figure out a way to rig the system. CBS predicts a win, as should most everyone else.

1. Padnos. Sometimes life is just too easy. Its not enough that he put up 107 huge points against league power Thalheimer last week. Its not enough that he's blessed with a job in scrap-rich Michigan and a home in bucolic East Grand Rapids. Padnos gets to test his league leading power ranking in a Week 5 game against Ansam. A loss here would conjure up the names Scott Norwood, Bill Buckner, Jean Van de Velde....

So at the quarter pole, remember this: The season is still young. Enjoy week 5,

As always,
Your Commish.