The Week that Was...

NFFLers:

Before we get started, Happy Birthday to Team Ansam owner Ben Zager (actual day is Monday the 7th per Facebook)... Say it together, J E T S , Jets, Jets, Jets. Have a great day Ben.

As we review last week, I spent some time looking at the past CBS Previews vs. actual results to see how good a job CBS was doing at predicting performances...These are some of my conclusions:
1. Their record in picking winners is excellent: In 21 games so far this year, they picked the winner correctly 13 times.
2. In Week 1, CBS overestimated our collective scoring performance by an average of 9.7 points per team. In other words, we let them down as only 5 of us outscored the Preview prediction.
3. In Week 2, CBS improved and only overestimated our collective performance by an avergae of 8 points per team. As a whole, we disappointed but not by as much as Week 1.
4. In Week 3 the wheels fell off. CBS overestimated our collective performance by an average of almost 16! points per team. Only 1 team - Solomon - beat the analysts expectations.

The only logical conclusion one can draw from the above is that the Previews are usually correct: if you are predicted to lose, you'll probably lose. However, the magnitude of the scoring will be skewed by CBS's complete inability to predict our teams actual performance. In fact, it seems to matter which team we're talking about as CBS has some of our teams pretty well figured out. For example, Smelters have averaged scoring just 2 points less than CBS predicts. PKay on the other hand, scores - on average - 32 points per game less than CBS predicts. Therefore, if CBS predicts your team to lose to PKay by 5 points - they're likely wrong, especially if you are Team Solomon, the only team who has beaten CBS's prediction each week. Here is how CBS is doing with each of our squads:

Team Avg Diff
PKay -32
The Rail -26
PSC -26
Carolina -18
Ansam -15
Metalico Buffalo -13
Dynamnic -10
SAR -10
Padnos -8
Sims -7
Dos -3
Smelters -2
Thalheimer +7
Solomon +13

The above just proves that not even CBS and their mounds of data and complex algorithms really knows whats happening in the NFL. Not sure about you, but I find that reassuring. Thats what makes the NFFL so fun for 4 months a year.....
OK, enough math. Lets look at last week in order of power rankings:

Dynamic vs Padnos:
In a matchup of the two top ranked squads in the league, Dynamic won by 17 in a game that lacked inspiration from either side. 75-58 is a sleepy performance for these two and only reinforces the primary weakness of DMS - they have a harder time scoring than Screech from Saved by the Bell. Padnos suffered from the bad play of normally reliable starters - namely Drew Brees who put up 5 points against Buffalo. Ouch.

Thalheimer vs. Metalico Buffalo:
This game is the NFFL equivalent of Buster Douglas vs. Mike Tyson; Finland vs. Soviets in WWII, and Appalachian St vs. Michigan. East Coast power Thalheimer was rolling headed into this game, while Metalico Buffalo was making multiple moves to secure enough points to be competitive. Well, like Buster Douglas, the Mountaineers of App State, and the Finns before him, Buffalo GM Ostendorf pulled all the right strings to secure a 79-79 tie. It was not the win Buffalo wanted, but it was enough to save face given the considerable disparity of squad depth and talent.

Carolina vs. Federal Metal Dos:
Here was my prediction from last week: "Carolina is playing your Commish this week in a game he's favored to win by 15. It could be wider, or Carolina could lose. This game is crazy to pick because of the nuttiness of real NFL teams like the Bills, Cowboys, and Bengals. If this game were in Vegas they'd probably pull it off the board." Your Commish turned in a commanding performance on the back of Lucky Pierre Thomas' 24 second-half fantasy points against Buffalo. Final score was 92-73...

Sims vs The Rail:
Sims was supposed to get pounded by Progress Rail. The Rail would have won had Cowboys running back Felix Jones been healthy for the second half. He wasn't and Sims won 78-76. For his part, Sims guessed right by selecting Matt Schaub over Joe Flacco (University of Delaware) to start at QB. Schaub scored 23 pts to Flacco's 17 which proved critical given the spread. By the way, Sims' decision of who to start at QB has to be tormenting each week....I am sure there are at least a few teams who would gladly take one of these guys off your hands Lew/Justin.

Solomon vs. PKay:
CBS predicted a tie in this one and Solomon didn't let it happen in a 89-75 victory. A great performance from Aaron Rodgers buoyed the Solomon attack, while the normally reliable PKay receiving corps let them down. Solomon won more than the game, with the injuries to Gore and Parker, Team Solomon has fewer pregame decisions to cloud the week. Its all hands on deck for the Solomon backfield with likely starts for Buckhalter and Derrick Ward until Frank Gore can handle the load for San Fran.

Smelters vs. Ansam:
Smelter owner Nagusky was pretty pumped for their matchup with Team Ansam. Week 2 featured a breakout game for Chris Johnson and Smelters was hoping for the same from Steve Slaton and Larry Johnson. Well, it didn't happen and the wishbone attack generated 21 total points in a decisive 75-64 loss. Ansam had a nice day from Mark Sanchez (seems to be a theme) and a great day from Baltimore wideout Derrick Mason to win their first game of the year...

PSC vs. SAR:
CBS predicted a 13 point PSC victory and PSC won by 9.... PSC's Maurice Jones-Drew had been a hard luck case. He was drafted 2nd, and until last week had been one of the least productive 1st round picks. 31 points later and he's back on track to justify the high draft choice. SAR had an awesome day from Vernon Davis - the 49er tight end. Unfortunately Davis was on the bench - a decision that cost SAR the game....it happens.

So after last week, the New Power Rankings are:
Rank. Team (places moved in last week)
1. Thalheimer (+2)
2. Solomon (+4)
tie 3. Dynamic (-1)
tie 3. Federal Metal Dos (+5)
5. Padnos (-4)
6. Sims (-1)
7. Metalico Buffalo (even)
8. Carolina (-4)
9. PSC (+3)
10. SAR (+3)
11. PKay (-2)
12. Rail (-1)
13. Smelters (-3)
14. Ansam (even)

Its time for Bye weeks gents, so get ready to be a real GM...
As always,
Your Commish