Let the Wild Rumpus Begin…Week 7.

Almost halfway through the season and the NFFL is beginning to take on the desperate feel of a high school dance when you know the time is short and you still haven’t stepped onto the floor. There are the class jocks –Buffalo, Padnos, Carolina, and Thalheimer - lording over the festivities with the quiet confidence that the world revolves around them. There is the class clown – Dynamic - whose timing and obliviousness spells good fortune – at least for now. There are the good, well intentioned kids whose considerable efforts will eventually payoff but probably not at this dance - Solomon, PSC, SAR, Dos, and Sims. There is the attendee who shows up in a cowboy hat and spurs prepared for the western theme when it was actually a semiformal - PKay. And of course, there are those that skipped the dance altogether to stay home and watch reruns of Monty Python’s Flying Circus - The Rail, Ansam, and Smelters. Regardless, the DJ has dimmed the lights and put “Forever Young” on the turntable. Get off the bleachers, walk across the gym floor, and ask…what’s the worst thing that can happen?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t4WadNAo7CI

Week 7 is here!

The week’s matchups are as follows:

#1 Padnos v #12 PKay

CBS is predicting a 101-92 win for PKay, a result that would have pretty obvious repercussions at the top of the league. PKay has a terrific matchup with Tomlinson and Sproles on the road at Kansas City while Padnos stud Drew Brees is on the road at Miami – not an easy task. CBS is interpreting this to predict the planetary realigning result above. We’ll see. PKay deserves a break this week.

#13 Ansam v #2 Thalheimer

The Second Annual Cupro Nickel Bowl kicks off in Philadelphia this weekend in a tilt between east coast powers on different ends of the rankings. Ansam fresh off a shocking win last week despite 11 interceptions by Mark Sanchez is not favored this week. Thalheimer is favored by almost thirty and with McNabb at Washington, you have to think the spread is justified. ISRI regulations prevent me from speculating on whats at stake in this gameJ

#3 Buffalo v #10 Solomon

CBS predicts the highest production to come from this game in a 115 – 104 win for Buffalo. There is no overstating the importance of this matchup to both squads: Buffalo is tied with Thalheimer for first in the Bronze Division and is trying to fend off PSC, and; Solomon is tied with your commish at 3-3 atop the Brass Division. While the season is too young to declare any loss for a division leading team a disaster, a loss would certainly be ill timed.

#11 Smelters v #4 Carolina

The owner of the World’s Greatest Ingot Maker is indeed down on his luck. Literally. Last weeks post showed that Smelters has had the worst luck in the league. Carolina, on the other hand, has been one of the luckier teams in the league. This week Carolina’s bellcow Adrian Peterson is at Pittsburgh which could create problems for Carolina. Your Commish is going out on a limb to predict a Smelter victory in week 7 – even though CBS says 113 – 80 Carolina.

#5 Sims v #8 SAR

This, the Second Annual Dienst Bowl, is predicted to be the tightest game of the week. SAR is 2-4 and Sims is 3-3 and both squads are looking to break out of their funk after loses in Week 6. CBS predicts 93-91 SAR, but Sims picked up someone named BenJarvus Green Ellis – the first 4-named player I have seen in the NFL. That alone should push Sims over the top for a special mention in the FY2009 Sims Metal Management Annual Report.

#6 Dos v #7 PSC

A rivalry game if there ever was one. Former coworkers – PSC-owner Savena taught your Commish how to sort brass at the Worlds Greatest Ingot Maker – then joined PSC to sell said brass items back to your Commish. In addition, PSC and Dos will be watching the Browns/Packers Game together in the friendly environs of Browns Stadium. Thank goodness we’ll have our children if one of us gets ahead in this matchup. Your Commish is favored 102-89 and really needs a win. PSC – at 4-2 – needs the victory to stay apace of Thalheimer and Buffalo.

#9 Dynamic v #14 The Rail

The Cubs traded Lew Brock to the Cardinals. The Astros traded Curt Shilling to the Phillies, and the Red Sox once traded a certain pitcher/hitter to the Yankees. This week The Rail traded Peyton Manning to Dynamic. Cedric Benson is a decent player, but Peyton Manning is, well, Peyton Manning. Last year The Rail had a good year despite such personnel decisions (see Bironas, Rod) and Dynamic won the Nancy Reagan Award for “Just Saying No” to all trade offers. The Rail will take it on the chin this week as CBS is likely correct in their prediction of a 111-79 Dynamic win.

So that’s all we have for the week.

Good Luck on the Dance Floor,

As Always,

Your Comish

Welcome to the Blog

NFFLers:
I decided to upgrade our communication forum as a way to keep Smelters owner Nagusky interested in the league. Last year, when he was atop the power ranking and perched atop his division, every day involved pleasant chit chat around the corporate water bubbler about his great draft, Matt Forte, trade options, the works. Now that he's trailing Padnos by 4 game and mired at 1-5, I get nothing but crickets out of the executive wing. So this blog is my antidote to keep the scene fresh.

In all seriousness, I have been thinking about a way to communicate with you outside the framework of email - while at the same time offering you, our suppliers, a more clever way to offer feedback. This forum is not a replacement for the League Message Board. That's still the best way to ask for trades, shout your frustration over waiver wire inactivity, and poke fun at Progress Rail for not knowing the difference between Rashard Mendenhall and Bake McBride. However, this Blog is cleaner, more 2010, and more capable of dealing with whatever tomfoolery your league has planned. For example, if I want to show you a photo of the aforementioned Philadelphia Phillie...I can do it:

Now for some ground rules:
1. Unless Spencer is the one swearing, its best we keep this clean.
2. This is an invite only Blog, so non-participants cannot access the posts and see whats happening. It provides you a safe haven to revel in the frivolity of football.
3. You'll notice I put a stream of copper related news on the left - thats designed to keep you focused on whats really important.
4. You should put this blog in your web browser favorites so you can easily access it for updates.
5. I will try to send message board reminders when I update this so you can stay up to date.

So welcome to the NFFL Blog.

From the world of $3 Cu,
Your Commish

The Week that Was ... Let the Wild Rumpus Begin ... Week 6

Well, here we go. Week 6 is upon us and every team in the league seems anxious to make a deal!!! There were two trades on the week involving PKay, Sims MM, Thalheimer, and Dos. In addition, the Message Board lit up after the waiver cycle on Wednesday as almost everyone is trying to get better. Even Smelters, currently mired at 1-4, believes a nice run will result in a playoff birth. The fact is, parody has indeed taken over, and an unexpected good performance by any roster player can create a win. The key there is "unexpected." Everyone knows Peyton Manning will have a solid outing most weeks. But when Ricky Williams puts up 13 fantasy points on Monday night to lead Metalico Buffalo to a 1-pt come from behind win over The Rail, thats unexpected. Its just as unexpected when your star receiver is sitting on the bench because of terrible play, and then hangs 35 fantasy points on a pretty good defense. That is exactly what happened last week to Carolina, who played the percentages and sat Rowdy Roddy White on the road at San Fran. All White did was score twice (30 and 90 yards) and put up 210 yards overall. Thats a monster day. Carolina won by a point anyway which is the only reason Carolina owner Paul Siegel isn't staggering down the beach in Hilton Head with a six day beard and bottle of Wild Turkey.

Congrats to everyone on trying for the unexpected...keep it up!

In a conversation yesterday with the owner of the Worlds Greatest Ingot Maker, Mr. Nagusky mentioned that his "defense was a sieve." In other words, he felt he was scoring enough each week to beat most teams but still had a 1-4 record. Does he have a point? The concomitant point to this is Dynamic Metal - who has a record of 4-1 despite the fact that he has a harder time scoring than Andrew Bernard from The Office. The quick answer is yes, Smelters does have a point. The reason? Luck. Sometimes you win weeks 55-50, and sometimes you lose weeks 102-107. It all comes down to matchups and timing.

There is a way to quantify or measure ones luck, however. The Breakdown Standings on the League Board is a measurement of your overall record if you played a single team each week. In other words, Dynamic Metal beat me in week 2 pretty decisively. However, if Dynamic were my opponent each week, my record would be 4-1 against him. He happened to play me the only week during the season where the matchups were in his favor enough to win. To measure ones luck, then, one must understand "Breakdown Records" versus "overall records." Here they are:



Your luck factor is a simple differential between you overall win % and your breakdown %. Put simply - if your number above is positive - you've been lucky. If its negative, you're unlucky. So Smelters has a legit beef, his winning percentage should be 25% higher than it is. Similarly, Dynamic should be 2-3 at best based on their points - luckiness has them at 4-1.

As mentioned above Week 6 is upon us, so lets take in at the games:

There are a few games that CBS predicts will be very close. In fact, based on CBS's inability to predict scores - the following spreads are well beyond CBS's ability to predict and could go either way:

Padnos vs. Smelters
Smelters can begin digging out of their early season hole with this game against division leading Padnos. CBS is predicting a 2 point win for Smelters which is probably required if Smelters has any designs on the playoffs.

PSC and PKay
CBS is predicting a good ole fashioned donnybrook in this one - 106-103 for PSC. Based on the matchups it seems likely to put up this many points - regardless of who comes out on top.

Solomon v Thalheimer
In a game between two of the top teams in the league - Solomon travels down the coast to meet East Coast legend Thalheimer. CBS predicts another tight one - 98-95 Solomon. Both teams feature running backs that may or may not get time in the starting lineup - Willie Parker for Solomon and Cadillac Williams for Thal. This game is huge for both teams as they need to stay atop their respective divisions.

SAR v Carolina
They both have two game winning streaks and they are both mired in the middle of their respective divisions. Carolina is behind Dynamic and Padnos in they tough Copper Division - SAR is tied with Dos behind Solomon in the Brass Division. CBS predicts a 104 - 100 thriller for Carolina.

There are also some games that CBS is pretty sure of:

Dos v The Rail
After The Rail dropped Pittsburgh starter Rashard Mendenhall prior to the start, CBS seems to be punishing him as a 39 point dog at home against your Commish. Whether it will be this wide a margin or not is irrelevant, Dos needs to end his two game losing streak and is counting on this....

Buffalo v Dynamic
Dynamic is by far the luckiest team in the league and CBS predicts that luck to run out this week against Buffalo. Whether it happens is largely a function of the way the Panthers and Buccaneers works out. If its on the ground, Buffalo should put up a load of points with Deangelo Williams and Derrick Ward both featuring. If the game goes in the air, all bets are off and Dynamic could steal another win.

Sims v Ansam
Its probably no surprise to find this game in the blowout section. Ansam is lucky to have his J E T S Jets, Jets, Jets playing Buffalo, but his Ravens are against Minnesota. Its a tough week to be Ansam and CBS predicts a 31 point whooping for Sims and his Burnese Mountain dogs.

Be well gentlemen,

For those of you with negative luck factors above, good luck this week. For Dynamic, its time to pay the fiddler,

As always,
Your Commish

The Week that Was..Let the Wild Rumpus Begin Week 5

NFFLers:
For those of you with strong affiliations to baseball teams in the Playoffs - enjoy. Your compatriots in Greater Cleveland will watch admiringly as our former stars (CC Sabathia, Casey Blake, and Cliff Lee) have success outside of the CLE. Its a sad commentary, but it should take none of the joy from Thalheimer (Phillies), Solomon (Red Sox), and PKay (Dodgers). Play Ball gentlemen...

We are now through 4 weeks - or 1/3 of the regular season in this the second year of the NFFL. There is a marked difference that has set in on this campaign that I don't remember last year: Parity. I assumed expanding the league from 12 to 14 teams would make the draft tougher, but I did not anticipate that it would level out the whole league the way it has. It makes sense if you consider that the two additional teams, well run as they are by Buffalo and Solomon, have 24 players that would otherwise be free agents in Year One. In practice it means:

- the waiver wire has less talent than the Cleveland Browns bench;
- the need for trades is more important;
- Spencer posts, for all to see, ""CAN I GET A WAIVER OR A TRADE IN THIS LEAGUE?""
- the draft meant way more than any of us realized when it was happening.

I applaud Spencer's unfettered frustration because I share it. However, its the last point above that is the one takeaway from this post that I hope you remember next August when I'm bugging you to agree to a draft time. Even if you view the draft as dumb luck there is no denying its importance now. I now think that the draft - in a league as deep as this one - the defining difference maker over last year. To see if this is true, I spent some time looking at our 2009 draft results and the points that have emerged for different teams from different selections. It led to the following comparison of draft ranking versus power ranking.

Here is my logic in developing a Draft Ranking:
- points earned by players - regardless of whether they are starters - or even still on the roster, count for the team drafting him;
- each round of the draft is not equal; the first two/three rounds are easy and largely scripted. The later rounds decide the fate of a season.
- I assume, for better or worse, that a team drafting well at the end of the draft should be given a weighted advantage over teams that only do well in the beginning of the draft;
- I grouped the rounds of the draft as follows: The Headlines 1,2,3. The Backbone 4, 5, 6. The Hidden Gems 7, 8, 9. The Shockers 10, 11, 12.
- As a crude method of weighting each round grouping, I used a points multiplier as follows: The Headliners x 1; The Backbone x 2; The Hidden Gems x 3; The Shockers x 4. In other words, a kicker drafted in the 11th round that has scored 50 total points, will be four times more valuable than a kicker drafted in the 3rd round that has scored 50 points.

Here are the results (with current Power Rankings in parenthesis).:

1. Sims Adams (9)
2. Carolina (6)
3. Buffalo (5)
4. Padnos (1)
5. Dos (7)
6. Solomon (3)
7. PKay (12)
8. Dynamic (4)
9. Thalheimer (2)
10. PSC (10)
11. Sims MM (8)
12. The Rail (13)
13. Smelters (11)
14. Ansam (14)

For the majority of our teams: Buffalo, Padnos, Dos, Solomon, PSC, Sims, The Rail, Smelters, Ansam, draft results and power rankings are within a few levels of one another. For 5 teams they aren't. For both Sims Adams and Thalheimer, in fact, the draft ranking seems irrelevant. In those two cases however, there may be mitigating factors that explain the disparity. For example, Bruce Keizler's brother Larry performed the draft for SAR, and subsequently left day-to-day management with Bruce. I will let you come to your own conclusions. I am just saying.... Thalheimer has had the opposite issue and been able to overcome a substandard draft, mainly because their free agent pickups have produced admirably.

My original hypothesis was not just that the draft was a good predictor of team performance - that would have been relatively obvious. It was that in a 14 team league with 12 players, the draft means considerably more than it does in a 12 team league with 12 players. The only way to prove whether this is the case would be to look back a year at a similar point in time and do the same analysis. I will likely do that later this season - but not today unless Smelters owner Nagusky springs for an NFFL intern, which if it happens, means Federal Metal is on its way to losing the well-earned moniker of "Worlds Greatest Ingot Maker."

So for those of us mired in the bottom half of the league with nothing but a substandard draft to blame, what to we do? Easy. Trade gentlemen. Cut a deal. Haggle. Bargain. PKay, Smelters, Carolina, and SAR have each entered into a trade so far. I cannot say its made a difference for anyone, but its a start...

Now onto a combined look back and a look ahead - this time in reverse order of the Power Rankings:

14. Ansam. A 30 point defeat at Dynamic ended a 1 game winning streak. The bloom may be off the rose for freshman QB Sanchez as defenses now know how to pick him off almost every time he drops back to pass. Ray Rice now appears to be the most serviceable Ansam member, outside of Derrick Mason, who remains mired on Ansam's bench despite his high ranking among receivers. Week 5 features a tall order against league power Padnos. A win here would require a movie remake along the lines of Rudi or Hoosiers.

13. The Rail. This Kentucky Wildcat fanatic lost to Smelters last week - giving the defending league champ his first win of the year. When you look at why, you don't need to look past Rail's backfield of McFadden, Coffey, and Moore - 3 backups. Yikes. In week 5 The Rail takes on Metalico Buffalo and is a 1-pt dog. The Rail made an outstanding waiver wire move for Rashard Mendenhall which solves the problem of having the Darren McFadden anywhere near his starting lineup.

12. PKay. Spencer and Larry lost late to Buffalo last week in a game they thought they'd win right up to the end of the late Sunday games. Another heart breaker that leaves PKay dizzy at 1-3. Week 5 features the Battle for Southern California against SAR. PKay is a small favorite, but the matchups in this game could swing it in either direction.

11. Smelters. Nagusky got off the duck last week with a win against The Rail. His wishbone is starting to round into form with Steve Slaton finally joining the ranks of the living/breathing RB's. Smelters would have broken 100 pts had they started all world Brandon Marshall instead of local dingbat Braylon Edwards. In week 5, Smelters is favored to be the leagues high scorer in a game against former colleague PSC. The wishbone is at it again and based on matchups, could be huge this week. One word of caution: Smelters has chosen the Bills D against Cleveland, which is bad karma. Stay tuned.

10. PSC. Phillip Rivers put up 21 points in week 4 for PSC, but the rest of the team took the week off in a 60 point performance. 60 points is just not going to win very often, and they didn't in a 22-point loss to Solomon. Week 5 features a big matchup against Nagusky. CBS predicts a 7 point victory for Smelters, but few things would be sweeter than a win over the former boss.

9. SAR. Keizler rode the back of Ronnie Brown and the Bengals D to a week 4 pounding of your Commish to get their first win. Whether they can beat PKay in the aforementioned Battle for So Cal is a function of whether their players do as well as they should. With Hines Ward v Detroit and Willis McGahee against Cincinnati, you'd think SAR could score some points. We'll see - its a 1-4 record for the loser of this game.

8. Sims MM. When Sims' receiving corp of John Knox, Don Driver, and Andy Johnson combine for 14 points, its unlikely Sims can win. They did just that in week 4 and as a result lost by 32 to Carolina. In week 5, Sims has some brutal bye week issues and appears likely to start 1 man down against league leading Dynamic. Regardless, the matchups in week 5 are in Sims favor and they are predicted to tie DMS ending their 4 game win streak.

7. Federal Metal Dos. Dos lost by 20 in Week 4 to SAR. 82 points will win some weeks - just not when your opponent puts up 102. So your Commish has to regroup against (gulp) Thalheimer in week 5. Dos is an underdog, but could benefit tremendously from having both Buffalo running backs going against Cleveland - the worst defense since the 1939 French. Or the Buffalo RB's could be a bust behind the worst offensive line since Nagusky's college roomate PJ Mooney spent St. Paddy's Day asking coeds "Do you have any Irish in you? Want some?".

6. Carolina. Normally 95 points in a 30 point win would be something to crow about. But when 42 of those points come from your D, you have to be wondering how sustainable this is...Thats exactly whats going through Carolina's mind this week going into week 5 against mighty Solomon. CBS predicts a 5 point win for Carolina, but when you look at the matchups you have to think Carolina could put up 130 this week. Peterson against the Rams D? Romo against KC? DeSean Jackson against TB? Its not a good week to be playing Carolina.

5. Metalico Buffalo. League newbie Buffalo continues his mastery of team management. Check that. Buffalo won in week 4 by 5 points to get to 2-1-1 which sounds cool. But Buffalo left 57! points on the bench. That kind of squad selection will cost wins down the road, but Ostendorf escaped week 4 with the win. Week 5 features a matchup at home against league lowboy The Rail. CBS predicts a tight one, which seems justified, especially if half of Buffalo's output is on the bench.

4. Dynamic. 76 points is not a great day, but it was enough to win by 30 against Ansam. Dynamic and SAR have scored close to the same total points this year. DMS is 4-0 and SAR is 1-3: DuCuvna may be doing it with smoke and mirrors. DMS is predicted to tie 78-78 in a sister-kisser against Sims in week 5. Is this the week DMS joins the rest of us with at least 1 loss?

3. Solomon. Last week was closer than the score indicated for Solomon in a 22 point win against PSC. At 3-1, Solomon is hitting stride at just the right time. Week 5 features a brutal game against Carolina, so their stride becomes pretty important.

2. Thalheimer. 97-points is almost always a good week - just not when the opponent is Padnos and their total is 107. Thats exactly what happened in week 4 to East Coast legend Thalheimer. Thalheimer's output was, perhaps, a sign of things to come as Maurice Sims Walker and the Saints D - free agency pickups both - put up over 50 combined points in week 4. Week 5 is against your Commish in a game he'd lose if your Commish could figure out a way to rig the system. CBS predicts a win, as should most everyone else.

1. Padnos. Sometimes life is just too easy. Its not enough that he put up 107 huge points against league power Thalheimer last week. Its not enough that he's blessed with a job in scrap-rich Michigan and a home in bucolic East Grand Rapids. Padnos gets to test his league leading power ranking in a Week 5 game against Ansam. A loss here would conjure up the names Scott Norwood, Bill Buckner, Jean Van de Velde....

So at the quarter pole, remember this: The season is still young. Enjoy week 5,

As always,
Your Commish.

Let the Wild Rumpus Begin Week 4

ts time for the NFL to enter their dreaded Bye season. With some of our best players out resting, each week brings new challenges to chose the best starting 8. Its also the season where injuries, coupled with bye weeks, can cripple an otherwise solid outing. This will be a theme for this weeks matchups:

Dynamic vs Ansam:
Sanchez has been terrific of late for Ansam, but this matchup has all the makings of a good ole fashioned a** kickin'. Dynamic's best players (Cultler and Benson) are playing Detroit and Cleveland this week. The best Jets players (all of whom play for Ansam) have a tough game against New Orleans. CBS predicts a thirty point blowout for Dynamic.

PSC vs Solomon:
A matchup between two 2-1 teams - the result of which will propel one team forward to 3-1 and bury the other in the mediocrity of a 2-2 start. Regardless of their record, this is a game Solomon would be thrilled to steal - and steal they must. The once strong Solomon running game has been stung by injuries to the superhuman Frank Gore and the mediocre (but starting) Willie Parkier. Correll Buckhalter and Jerome Harrison will be doing the business for Solomon which cannot inspire much confidence. PSC, for his part has taken advantage of a good waiver wire position to pick up Indy receiver Pierre Garcon the new best friend of Peyton Manning. This should pay dividends throughout the year and CBS predicts a 20-point victory for PSC.

Padnos vs. Thalheimer:
One of the top matchups of the week. Thalheimer is riddled with bye week and injury problems: his bench consists of Brian Westbrook, Donovan McNabb, Mike Turner, and Anquan Boldin. This is the best week of the year to be playing the #1 Power Ranked team. Padnos has been a points machine for 2 of the first 3 weeks. Whether they can get back on the 100+ points pony is a function of how well Drew Brees does against the Jets and how the Giants do at home against KC (Padnos has Jacobs and Tyne). Once Thalheimer gets through this week, its pretty smooth sailing, so for the rest of us, we need to be pulling for Padnos. CBS predicts a 1-pt victory for Padnos for what its worth.

Sims vs. Carolina:
Noone has gotten less from their first round pick than Sims has from LaDanian Tomlinson. Despite this, Sims has surged to a 2-1 record on a passing game featuring Matt Schuab, Andre Johnson, Don Driver, and Johnny Knox. Carolina is a heavy favorite however on the back of a certain #28 from Minnesota. The rest of the Carolina squad is dangerous too: Don Brown and Joe Addai will both feature for Indianapolis against the moribund Seahawks.

Metalico Buffalo vs. PKay
Through injury and bye weeks, this game features the following running backs: Ricky Williams and Fred Taylor for Buffalo and Mike Bush and Steve Jackson for PKay. Either of these backfields would have me walking the alleys of East Cleveland in a fog of indifference. The only good news for these teams is that the opposing backfield is just as bad. The game is predicted to go 92-82 for PKay, but I don't see it being that high. Neither team seems positioned for an outburst unless the Redskin-heavy Metalico squad benefits from an outstanding game from Washington against Tampa Bay.

Smelters vs. Progress Rail
This game is one of the few on the week where one can see both teams emerging from their shell for an outstanding performance. Smelters has great matchups for Chris Johnson (JAC) and Slaton (OAK) so might expect a breakout for both players. The Rail has Manning going against Seattle and Glen Coffee going against St. Louis. CBS predicts a 5 point win for Smelters, a result that would be welcome after a very slow 0-3 start.

Federal Metal Dos vs. SAR:
SAR is desperate for their first win and your Commish desperately wants to go 3-1. CBS is predicting an 11-point SAR win, which seems dependent on the performance of Tom Brady against Baltimore. CBS seems to think Brady will be as good against Baltimore as Dos' Carson Palmer will be against Cleveland...hummmm. Like last week, CBS also seems to be underestimating the quality of Fred Jackson and Pierre Thomas which if they produce, should double or triple their predicted scoring totals. SAR lives in Long Beach so at the end of the day, the result of this game means little. Winter is bearing down on the North Coast of America and the leaves are piling up in your Commish's yard....this game means a lot to Dos...

Happy returns Gentlemen:

As always,
Your Commish

The Week that Was...

NFFLers:

Before we get started, Happy Birthday to Team Ansam owner Ben Zager (actual day is Monday the 7th per Facebook)... Say it together, J E T S , Jets, Jets, Jets. Have a great day Ben.

As we review last week, I spent some time looking at the past CBS Previews vs. actual results to see how good a job CBS was doing at predicting performances...These are some of my conclusions:
1. Their record in picking winners is excellent: In 21 games so far this year, they picked the winner correctly 13 times.
2. In Week 1, CBS overestimated our collective scoring performance by an average of 9.7 points per team. In other words, we let them down as only 5 of us outscored the Preview prediction.
3. In Week 2, CBS improved and only overestimated our collective performance by an avergae of 8 points per team. As a whole, we disappointed but not by as much as Week 1.
4. In Week 3 the wheels fell off. CBS overestimated our collective performance by an average of almost 16! points per team. Only 1 team - Solomon - beat the analysts expectations.

The only logical conclusion one can draw from the above is that the Previews are usually correct: if you are predicted to lose, you'll probably lose. However, the magnitude of the scoring will be skewed by CBS's complete inability to predict our teams actual performance. In fact, it seems to matter which team we're talking about as CBS has some of our teams pretty well figured out. For example, Smelters have averaged scoring just 2 points less than CBS predicts. PKay on the other hand, scores - on average - 32 points per game less than CBS predicts. Therefore, if CBS predicts your team to lose to PKay by 5 points - they're likely wrong, especially if you are Team Solomon, the only team who has beaten CBS's prediction each week. Here is how CBS is doing with each of our squads:

Team Avg Diff
PKay -32
The Rail -26
PSC -26
Carolina -18
Ansam -15
Metalico Buffalo -13
Dynamnic -10
SAR -10
Padnos -8
Sims -7
Dos -3
Smelters -2
Thalheimer +7
Solomon +13

The above just proves that not even CBS and their mounds of data and complex algorithms really knows whats happening in the NFL. Not sure about you, but I find that reassuring. Thats what makes the NFFL so fun for 4 months a year.....
OK, enough math. Lets look at last week in order of power rankings:

Dynamic vs Padnos:
In a matchup of the two top ranked squads in the league, Dynamic won by 17 in a game that lacked inspiration from either side. 75-58 is a sleepy performance for these two and only reinforces the primary weakness of DMS - they have a harder time scoring than Screech from Saved by the Bell. Padnos suffered from the bad play of normally reliable starters - namely Drew Brees who put up 5 points against Buffalo. Ouch.

Thalheimer vs. Metalico Buffalo:
This game is the NFFL equivalent of Buster Douglas vs. Mike Tyson; Finland vs. Soviets in WWII, and Appalachian St vs. Michigan. East Coast power Thalheimer was rolling headed into this game, while Metalico Buffalo was making multiple moves to secure enough points to be competitive. Well, like Buster Douglas, the Mountaineers of App State, and the Finns before him, Buffalo GM Ostendorf pulled all the right strings to secure a 79-79 tie. It was not the win Buffalo wanted, but it was enough to save face given the considerable disparity of squad depth and talent.

Carolina vs. Federal Metal Dos:
Here was my prediction from last week: "Carolina is playing your Commish this week in a game he's favored to win by 15. It could be wider, or Carolina could lose. This game is crazy to pick because of the nuttiness of real NFL teams like the Bills, Cowboys, and Bengals. If this game were in Vegas they'd probably pull it off the board." Your Commish turned in a commanding performance on the back of Lucky Pierre Thomas' 24 second-half fantasy points against Buffalo. Final score was 92-73...

Sims vs The Rail:
Sims was supposed to get pounded by Progress Rail. The Rail would have won had Cowboys running back Felix Jones been healthy for the second half. He wasn't and Sims won 78-76. For his part, Sims guessed right by selecting Matt Schaub over Joe Flacco (University of Delaware) to start at QB. Schaub scored 23 pts to Flacco's 17 which proved critical given the spread. By the way, Sims' decision of who to start at QB has to be tormenting each week....I am sure there are at least a few teams who would gladly take one of these guys off your hands Lew/Justin.

Solomon vs. PKay:
CBS predicted a tie in this one and Solomon didn't let it happen in a 89-75 victory. A great performance from Aaron Rodgers buoyed the Solomon attack, while the normally reliable PKay receiving corps let them down. Solomon won more than the game, with the injuries to Gore and Parker, Team Solomon has fewer pregame decisions to cloud the week. Its all hands on deck for the Solomon backfield with likely starts for Buckhalter and Derrick Ward until Frank Gore can handle the load for San Fran.

Smelters vs. Ansam:
Smelter owner Nagusky was pretty pumped for their matchup with Team Ansam. Week 2 featured a breakout game for Chris Johnson and Smelters was hoping for the same from Steve Slaton and Larry Johnson. Well, it didn't happen and the wishbone attack generated 21 total points in a decisive 75-64 loss. Ansam had a nice day from Mark Sanchez (seems to be a theme) and a great day from Baltimore wideout Derrick Mason to win their first game of the year...

PSC vs. SAR:
CBS predicted a 13 point PSC victory and PSC won by 9.... PSC's Maurice Jones-Drew had been a hard luck case. He was drafted 2nd, and until last week had been one of the least productive 1st round picks. 31 points later and he's back on track to justify the high draft choice. SAR had an awesome day from Vernon Davis - the 49er tight end. Unfortunately Davis was on the bench - a decision that cost SAR the game....it happens.

So after last week, the New Power Rankings are:
Rank. Team (places moved in last week)
1. Thalheimer (+2)
2. Solomon (+4)
tie 3. Dynamic (-1)
tie 3. Federal Metal Dos (+5)
5. Padnos (-4)
6. Sims (-1)
7. Metalico Buffalo (even)
8. Carolina (-4)
9. PSC (+3)
10. SAR (+3)
11. PKay (-2)
12. Rail (-1)
13. Smelters (-3)
14. Ansam (even)

Its time for Bye weeks gents, so get ready to be a real GM...
As always,
Your Commish

A Belated Week that Was and LTWRB - Week 3

EDITORS NOTE:
This was to be sent at around 11 AM today. Failure to do so is an oversight by your commish...Sorry. Read on..

Well Gents, here we are for Week 3. It seems like yesterday that we were fumbling through our draft at 10 PM EST. With two games under our belt, and another approaching in a few hours, we all probably feel like we know something about our team - the good and bad. But what can we really know after two weeks???

Given that I did not have time to properly post a Week that Was segment this week, I figure I would do a bit of analysis on each team - past, present, and future. So here we go in order of the League Power Rankings:

1. Team Padnos (2-0 in Copper Division)
Strength: Its real simple: Drew Brees is the player most likely to be awarded the League MVP in January and have Padnos hoisting the Cathode Cup in St. Louis. His dominance is complete: there were four QB's taken in the 1st round of the draft (Brees, Manning, Brady, Sanchez) and Brees is almost outscoring the other three combined.
Weakness: Team Padnos is shallower than Joey from Friends. Bye weeks for key players (Brees and any of the RB's) will likely mean losses for Padnos if the competition is tough.
Matchup: Their toughest test is this week against Dynamic Metal. They're an underdog for the first time all year, and guessing from the schedule, should expect a loss.
End Analysis: This is a great team with the potential to win 12 games if they stay healthy. If Padnos owner Heitmeier decides to pull a Billy Bidwell and get involved, 8-9 wins is more likely.

2. Team Dynamic Metal Solutions (2-0 in Copper Division)
Strength: Management. It is more than luck when management produces a top three scorers of Cedric Benson, Marques Colston, and the Packer D. Who among us saw that coming? Things have gone so well for DMS, that Matt Forte is starting despite being the least productive player drafted in the 1st Round.
Weakness: Scoring. DMS is 4th in scoring so far, which could be a problem if the guys above cool off at all.
Matchup: DMS is expected to lay the wood to Padnos this weekend which would give them a commanding lead in the Copper Division. All signs point to that being likely and for DMS owner DuCovna to be completely insufferable in the near term.
End Analysis: This team is likely to be good all season. If Forte gets right, with all other players maintaining form, DMS will be awesome.

3. Thalheimer (2-0 in Bronze Division)
Strength: The Draft. I said after the draft that Thalheimer was loaded, and they are. McNabb gets hurt? Hello Kerry Collins. Cadillac Williams gets hurt? Hello Julius Jones. It doesn't matter what happens, these guys are going to score more than Shawn Kemp. When Cavs guard Delonte West was arrested in DC last week he had fewer weapons than Rich Reiner has on this squad.
Weakness: Reiners car of choice - the Porsche Cayenne - doesn't have a third seat for carrying extra kids
Matchup: An 11-point dog to Buffalo. This is one of those weeks where slight injury knocks, schedule, and opponent matchups might conspire against Thalheimer. It will be a rare occurance - but as fellow owners, we need this to be a loss if we want to keep Thalheimer in our sights.
End Analysis: They're the most balanced team, in the weakest division, with 12 legit players. I dread my matchup with them and everyone else should too.

4. Carolina (1-1 in Copper Division)
Strength: That guy in Minnesota with 28 on his jersey. There were 14 RB's drafted in the first two rounds and they are averaging 12.5 pts per game. Peterson is averaging twice that. Case closed.
Weakness: Tony Romo is having a pretty good fantasy season and a pretty lousy real one. If he sits, Carolina is saddled with Kyle Orton, which will hardly thrill this perennial power from the Palmetto State.
Matchup: Carolina is playing your Commish this week in a game he's favored to win by 15. It could be wider, or Carolina could lose. This game is crazy to pick because of the nuttiness of real NFL teams like the Bills, Cowboys, and Bengals. If this game were in Vegas they'd probably pull it off the board.
End Analysis: Expect Carolina to linger in this position all year. The caveat to that point is that they play in the Copper Division and are already in 3rd place in the division. They could be a fatality of the lopsided schedule if they don't stay lucky.

5. Sims (1-1 in Copper Division)
Strength: The Aerial Attack. With weaopns Joe Flacco (University of Delaware) and Matt Straub throwing the ball, plus Don Driver and Andre Johnson catching it, they have strength in the air.
Weakness: Jekyll and Hyde. The air attack is less consistent than the wishbone, so Sims has had two weeks of feast and famine scoring.
Matchup: They are expected to be pounded by The Rail. That just sounds funny to write.....
End Analysis: Like Thalheimer, Sims has good players on the bench is not real worried about bye week lapses. They'll be decent all year.

6. Solomon (1-1 in Brass Division)
Strength: Frank Gore. See Peterson, Adrian above. Gore is just as good but doesn't star in as many Nike commercials.
Weakness: Management by committee. Mssrs. Solomon and Fink have to decide which of the following to play each week: Willie Parker, Correll Buckhalter, Derrick Ward. They can only pick one....I couldn't make that call myself let alone do it in concert with a coworker. I would pay to be around when that decision gets made.
Matchup: They are locked in a 98-98 tie with PKay. The 2nd running back could make all the difference....
End Analysis: They lost in the last quarter of the last game last week and they could easily be 2-0. Their inclusion in the NFFL has been a wonderful addition.

7. Metalico Buffalo (1-1 in Bronze Division)
Strength: It was tight end...but they have managed their way out of that issue. Now their strength is the somewhat surprising performance of Big Ben, Dallas Clark, and Marion Barber. 1st Round pick DeAngelo Williams is their 4th best player so far!
Weakness: Overwork. Sometimes its wise to set the team and let them go. If Buffalo owner Ostendorf does anything wrong, it will be to bench the wrong player at the wrong time....
Matchup: A favorite over Thalheimer. This would be HUGE for league newby Buffalo to take down East Coast legend Thalheimer. The equivalent of the Jets beating the Colts.
End Analysis: Ostendorf is GM of the Year so far. His moves have worked, his determination has been inspiring. The Chamber of Commerce in Buffalo should run a campaign celebrating this success. Lord knows they have little else to write about.

8. Federal Metal Dos (1-1 in Brass Division)
Strength: Like Sims, FM Dos went heavy at receiver and it shows with a leading aerial attack.
Weakness: Dos's running game has been decent so far - but its loaded with conflicts between players (Jackson and Lynch for Buffalo and Thomas and Bell for New Orleans). The points will be there, but who the heck will score them?
Matchup: Heavy dog at Carolina. See above
End Analysis: I actually have a lot of faith in this team. They are high scoring and will continue to be...a big if.

9. PKay Metals (1-1 in Brass Division)
Strength: I think if I asked Spencer right now, he'd be as confused as I am as to what the overall strength of PKay is. I think the potential of a receiver core with recently acquired Mario Manningham (from Iowa), Calvin Johnson and Chad Johnson are enough to be excited about the coming weeks.
Weakness: Running the ball will be a challenge most weeks with a backfield of Jamal Lewis, Mike Bush, and Steve Jackson. Only Jackson is a regular, and he plays in St Louis.
Matchup: They are locked in a 98-98 draw with Solomon.
End Analysis. The wins may come, but this team has the same record in the same division with Dos, but has scored 33 points less. Scoring will be an issue all year unless the receiving corp does well.

10. Smelters (0-2 in Copper Division)
Strength: The wishbone. On paper Chris Johnson, Larry Johnson, and Steve Slaton are a formidable threesome (insert joke here).
Weakness: Save one 45-pt outburst from Chris Johnson, the above group would otherwise be the crappiest triplets since the cast of 3's Company was assembled. It may be as bad a year to be a Smelter as it is to be a smelter.
Matchup: Favored at Ansam. Smelters need this win or they are probably eliminated from the playoffs. I cannot imagine them beating out Padnos, DMS, Sims and Carolina if they start 0-3.
End Analysis: Smelters ownership is going to dig, fight, and work to avoid the pits. His team may lack quality overall without a change of fortune at the top, but they'll trade and bargain for points all year.

11. The Rail (1-1 in Brass Division)
Strength: The Rail has a gorgeous wife and a beautiful 8 month old daughter. He also has both Mannings on his team so he could be a trade candidate at some point.
Weakness: If I had to picture what batting against Nolan Ryan was like in 1983, thats how hard it will be for The Rail to put up points most weeks.
Matchup: They are expected to pound Sims. That still feels funny to write.
End Analysis: The Rail made a mockery of your commish last year and he has the makings of a team that could do it again. The difference is that this year, he doesn't have a consistent scoring threat other than at QB.

12. PSC (1-1 in Bronze Division)
Strength: Pittsburgh D.
Weakness: Taking the aforementioned D in the 2nd round may have cost too many points from field players like Roddy White, Ryan Grant, etc...
Matchup: a 13 pt fav over SAR. Phil Rivers may pull this off on his own..
End Analysis: 12th is too low for PSC, but the playoffs might be too high unless points start to flow.

13. SAR (0-2 in Brass Division)
Strength: Sims Adams has been hurt by the mediocre play of Tom Brady and Clint Portis. I know this sounds like a weakness, but when you're ranked 13th in a 14 team league, your Commish is only going to be so charitable.
Weakness: See strengths.
Matchup: An underdog at PSC. This alphabet game is going to come down to whether Portis can do well versus Detroit, or if Brady can play well against ATL. Otherwise its PSC all the way.
End Analysis: Long Beach is really underrated in the Greater LA area. Thats a good thing....

14. Team Ansam (0-2 in Bronze Division)
Strength: Baltimore receiver Derrick Mason. He's a stud and will have a breakout year.
Weakness: While its fun to root for players you like - fantasy football is all about the cruel calculation of numbers. Ansam has more Jets on it than an O'Hare runway. This is a real problem for bye weeks and injuries.
Matchup: An underdog against Smelters and the Jets are playing Tennessee. Its should be a tough week for Ansam again.
End Analysis: Controls enough of the Cupro Nickel market that NFFL status is largely irrelevant. Thats probably a good thing this year for our favorite team owner Ben Zager.

Good luck in the trenches gentlemen.

Your Commish

Let the Wild Rumpus Begin Week 2

Time to kick off Week 2.

Its been said that you never know how tough you are until you've been punched in the nose. Similarly, week 2 of the fantasy season is the week that begins to answer all of week one's questions:
- is defending champion Smelter really only capable of 60 weekly points?
- is Spencer going to make the trade for PKay that turns the season around?
- is Padnos for real?

You get the drift....

If our league were to be broadcast on network television, and if I were the Producer who got to decide who was on prime time and who was on local access, this is how I'd lay out the schedule:

Local Coverage restricted to Western New York and the Greater Baltimore Metro Area not including Washington DC:
Ansam v Metalico Buffalo. Both teams are searching for an identity, though the Ansam identity can be described as J...E...T...S Jets Jets Jets. Metalico made some bold moves on the mid week waiver wire. They failed to sign Devin Hester (he went to Smelters), but they were able to rid themselves of some of their 7 tight ends. Buffalo is an overwhelming 28 point favorite - but CBS seems a bit generous in their assumptions on the performance of Team Metalico. Figure Ansam to make this close on the back of NFL Rookie of the Year Mark Sanchez.

Super Regional Coverage:
The Rail v Solomon. Boston has always been good at generating fan interest outside the market (see Celtics and Red Sox and Dropkick Murphys), so its no surprise that the network wants Team Solomon playing to a broad audience. Their matchup against Team Progress Rail is projected as one of the tightest of the week, but the real drama this week is the "management-by-committee" structure at Team Solomon. Their second running back selection each week is likely to be the subject of greater internal debate than the value of #2 Cu. Lets see if the decisions go their way in Week 2...

PSC v Padnos. This is a fairy tale game between two teams that were at the bottom of the power standings in Year 1. One of these teams will emerge as the "Arizona Cardinals" of 2009 as both are 1-0 and expected to be around 100 points this week. If you are a fan of the game - and not just a fan of the local squad, than this game is a must see.

DMS v Dos. CBS predicts a 3 point squeeker in favor of DMS. Dos' running game is in taters, but their receiving game is the second ranked in the league. 3 points in either direction is likely in this matchup - but pride is on the line in this one. Dos cannot afford the sushi he'll have to buy if DMS's Ducovna beats Federal Metal reps Smelters and Dos in back-to-back weeks.

Nationally televised 4 PM game:
Thalheimer v SAR. This one has one runaway team - Thalheimer, against a good team hoping to rebound in week 2 - SAR. The game also features cross country travel for Thalheimer and their vaunted ground game. SAR really needs this win to avoid sitting at the bottom of the tough Brass Division.

Sunday Night Football:
Carolina v PKay: CBS predicts this one to be the shootout of the week. Carolina may suffer from having to travel across country, but their balance running and throwing should give them options on the road. PKay had some bad matchups in week 1 that may explain a flaccid performance in a loss. For Spencers' sake, lets hope thats the case so they can rebound at home in a win week 2.

Monday Night Football:
Smelters v Sims: The returning champ always gets prime billing. Both teams are 0-1. The winner of this game can dismiss week 1 as early season jitters; the loser has to start rethinking their season. As if the national stage is not motivation enough, both teams have hit the waiver wire in search of the one ingredient to galvanize the attack. This is one to stay up late for...

So sink into the sofa, fire up the laptop to NFFL.com, and enjoy Week 2. Good luck to all,

As always,
Your Commish

The Week that Was...

NFFLers:

Bob Dylan wrote the following words in 1963:

The line it is drawn
The curse it is cast
The slow one now
Will later be fast
As the present now
Will later be past
The order is
Rapidly fadin'.
And the first one now
Will later be last
For the times they are a-changin'.

Nothing could more clearly summarize the first week of the NFFL. Though in fairness to Bob Dylan, I think he was hoping the song would have a broader impact.

Regardless, last year ended at Milo's Bar and Bocce Court in St. Louis, MO with Smelters hoisting the Cathode Cup as Year 1 Champs. Team Padnos was there to offer a toast and good humor given that his squad finished a DISTANT last. His record was 2-15, his two wins...pure luck. He was last in scoring, last in transactions, and nowhere near second to last place.

To put Padnos' 128-point week 1 outburst in perspective, consider that last year he cleared 80 points 1 time. He scored less than 40 points twice, and less than 50, 5 times. There was not a consecutive 2 game output from Padnos that would have exceeded 128 points at any point.

Smelters, on the other hand, started last year with 62 points and only went below 100 points twice in the next 10 weeks. His 52-point season opening output this year was less than half his season average from a year ago.

The times are indeed changin'. Or maybe they're not...its only week 1.

Week 1 posted performances that can be broken into three pretty clear groups: High Speed, Semi Red, and Soft Lead.

High Speed:
-Padnos lead the pack with a huge performance from Drew Brees and above average performances from Tom Jones and the Vikings D. In fact, the only team member to be subpar was Brandon Jacobs, and I doubt he'll disappoint very often.
-Carolina - as predicted - went over the century mark (116) on strong efforts from Romo, Hightower, Jennings, and of course Adrian Peterson. I have a feeling this will happen a lot this year.
-Thalheimer - also predicted - posted 114 points on the back of 42! from the Eagles D. Granted, the Eagles D is not going to be the bellcow for Thalheimer all year, but Thalheimer also left 34 points on his bench.
-Dos - Yup, your Commish finished in the High Speed category on the back of a surprising contribution from the running game (who would have predicted 32 points combined from Mike Bell and Fred Jackson?).
-Solomon - Their 101 points came the hard way - with only Reggie Wayne going well beyond projections with 22 points. Like Thalheimer, Solomon lacks a weakness and will likely spend a lot of time in this category.

Semi Red:
-Dynamic - DMS opened with a win on 87 points - a win DuCovna will gladly take over Smelters.
-PSC - PSC also had a solid performance from his team in posting 81 points in a win. Purgatory at 81 points will not satisfy PSC, however. Devon Hester will likely feature in future lineups and boost the production.
-SAR - 76 points may get a victory some weeks, but it wasn't nearly enough this week against Solomon. SAR will get luckier - they had subpar performances from Ron Brown and Clint Portis, as well as an injury to Anthony Gonzalez. There is plenty of fight left in Long Beach.
-Buffalo - The surprising sacking of the Packers D and their 16 pts, plus the start of unproven Pats WR Sam Aiken, left Buffalo marooned on 70 points for the week. A few different lineup selections would have made a difference in points, but not in result. They lost by 46 to Carolina.

Soft Lead
Ansam - 65 points ain't a lot to be excited about. But a look behind the numbers shows that Ansam is unlikely to feature in this section again: Mark Sanchez may be a fantasy stud, and Ray Rice appears to be the man in Baltimore. Add Leon Washington to the mix and Ansam will be a tougher matchup.
PKay - This appears to be bad luck. Noone - literally noone on Team PKay - exceeded expectations in week 1. Its too early to call this a trend - probably more due to matchups - but this is not what Spencer had in mind. Expect trade offers....
SIMS - See note on Pkay above. The only member of Team Sims that showed on Sunday was the Giants D, and you never want your D leadin the week with 20 points. The Commish lives in fear of Sims and their Burnese Mountain Dog mascot. Sims won't be at the bottom very often this year.
Smelters - Oh my. What to say? I should probably let sleeping dogs lie on this one and see if this just a one-off week for Smelters. Last year he had his worst performance in week 1 and never looked back. I don't bet against my buddy and my boss....
The Rail - He lost 128 -45. Thats just nasty. See if Thalheimer will cut you a deal on one of his bench players (unlikely unless you score him a foundry account in the area) and troll the waiver wire like a lobsterman in July.

Until the weekend,
As always,
Your Commish

Let the Wild Rumpus Begin Part 2....

Here we go. This is the best week of the season for fantasy football. For the most part, our teams are healthy, our expectations immense, and our matchups are all good. Its really hard not to be excited. Of course, nothing feels worse than the end of Week 1 when we realize our 3rd round draft pick has fallen in the depth chart and our starting QB has a nagging shoulder issue. For the time being though - we're all in the hunt for the Cathode Cup.

So lets get on to the Week 1 tilt:
- Dynamic is favored by almost 60! against Cathode Cup winner Smelters. This would be a universe altering event and we predict CBS is way off. There are only a few things in life that we know for sure: its impossible to win a land war in Asia, and; Smelters doesn't lose by 60. Dynamic may win - but it will be close.
-Padnos and Progress Rail are slated for a high scoring matchup that hinges on whether Padnos' Drew Brees or Rails Terrell Owens can run amok. CBS predicts both teams over 100. The Commish knows better - this will be low scoring and close;
-Carolina spotted Buffalo 16 points from the Thursday night game and enters the weekend behind. Carolina's matchups are not the best - except for one: Adrian Peterson v. Browns Defense. Pencil AP in for 30 fantasy points. We'll see if its enough to overcome Metalico Buffalo and their merry band of Tight Ends;
-Ansam Metals took a lot of stick in the draft room for loading up on J E T S, Jets, Jets, Jets. But look closely at this team - Zager was running a bait-and-switch on us; Ray Rice, Pats D, and Jason Witten have awesome matchups. If Mark Dirty Sanchez does anything at all at home against Houston, Ansam could sneak a Week 1 upset of Team PSC;
-PKay and Dos are also predicted to go over 100 points apiece. PKay has the makings of a team that can actually do it; Dos, not so much. Dos has a great passing game and a solid D. The running game features two guys (Fred Jackson and Mike Bell) who most people - including Dos ownership - have never heard of before. This should be a good week to be PKay.

There are two matchups that are too close to call:
Thal v Sims and SAR v Sol

Thal v Sims
On the face of it, the Commish thinks these two teams walked away from the draft as loaded as Homer Simpson. Team Thalheimer is so talented they look like a shoe-in to win the Cheadle for leaving the most points on the bench. Starting studs Julius Jones, Cadillac Williams, and Anquan Boldin are on the bench - you should see his starters!!! Sims features the most balance in the league - the only real question mark being Matt Straub's start at New York. Based on matchups only - Thal should escape this Week 1 slugfest.

SAR v Sol
League newby Team Solomon has joined the scene with lots of fantasy experience and a solid squad. Team SAR was drafted by Keizler brother Allen, and looks good on paper. We know from last year that CBS maintains a strong west coast bias, so it should come as no surprise that SAR is a 10 point favorite going into the game. However, Solomon scored big with Tennessee's D on Thursday night and set a fast pace for the rest of the week. Their primary concern has to be whether Willie Parker was worth a start (he managed 1 point)....they will only know that if the running back they benched in favor of Parker - Fred Taylor - does well at home against the Bills. Its nail biting time in Lynn, Mass.

So let the wild rumpus begin; I hope everyone has a great weekend of work, family, and the NFFL (not necessarily in that order).
Your Commish.