The Week that Was ... Let the Wild Rumpus Begin ... Week 6

Well, here we go. Week 6 is upon us and every team in the league seems anxious to make a deal!!! There were two trades on the week involving PKay, Sims MM, Thalheimer, and Dos. In addition, the Message Board lit up after the waiver cycle on Wednesday as almost everyone is trying to get better. Even Smelters, currently mired at 1-4, believes a nice run will result in a playoff birth. The fact is, parody has indeed taken over, and an unexpected good performance by any roster player can create a win. The key there is "unexpected." Everyone knows Peyton Manning will have a solid outing most weeks. But when Ricky Williams puts up 13 fantasy points on Monday night to lead Metalico Buffalo to a 1-pt come from behind win over The Rail, thats unexpected. Its just as unexpected when your star receiver is sitting on the bench because of terrible play, and then hangs 35 fantasy points on a pretty good defense. That is exactly what happened last week to Carolina, who played the percentages and sat Rowdy Roddy White on the road at San Fran. All White did was score twice (30 and 90 yards) and put up 210 yards overall. Thats a monster day. Carolina won by a point anyway which is the only reason Carolina owner Paul Siegel isn't staggering down the beach in Hilton Head with a six day beard and bottle of Wild Turkey.

Congrats to everyone on trying for the unexpected...keep it up!

In a conversation yesterday with the owner of the Worlds Greatest Ingot Maker, Mr. Nagusky mentioned that his "defense was a sieve." In other words, he felt he was scoring enough each week to beat most teams but still had a 1-4 record. Does he have a point? The concomitant point to this is Dynamic Metal - who has a record of 4-1 despite the fact that he has a harder time scoring than Andrew Bernard from The Office. The quick answer is yes, Smelters does have a point. The reason? Luck. Sometimes you win weeks 55-50, and sometimes you lose weeks 102-107. It all comes down to matchups and timing.

There is a way to quantify or measure ones luck, however. The Breakdown Standings on the League Board is a measurement of your overall record if you played a single team each week. In other words, Dynamic Metal beat me in week 2 pretty decisively. However, if Dynamic were my opponent each week, my record would be 4-1 against him. He happened to play me the only week during the season where the matchups were in his favor enough to win. To measure ones luck, then, one must understand "Breakdown Records" versus "overall records." Here they are:



Your luck factor is a simple differential between you overall win % and your breakdown %. Put simply - if your number above is positive - you've been lucky. If its negative, you're unlucky. So Smelters has a legit beef, his winning percentage should be 25% higher than it is. Similarly, Dynamic should be 2-3 at best based on their points - luckiness has them at 4-1.

As mentioned above Week 6 is upon us, so lets take in at the games:

There are a few games that CBS predicts will be very close. In fact, based on CBS's inability to predict scores - the following spreads are well beyond CBS's ability to predict and could go either way:

Padnos vs. Smelters
Smelters can begin digging out of their early season hole with this game against division leading Padnos. CBS is predicting a 2 point win for Smelters which is probably required if Smelters has any designs on the playoffs.

PSC and PKay
CBS is predicting a good ole fashioned donnybrook in this one - 106-103 for PSC. Based on the matchups it seems likely to put up this many points - regardless of who comes out on top.

Solomon v Thalheimer
In a game between two of the top teams in the league - Solomon travels down the coast to meet East Coast legend Thalheimer. CBS predicts another tight one - 98-95 Solomon. Both teams feature running backs that may or may not get time in the starting lineup - Willie Parker for Solomon and Cadillac Williams for Thal. This game is huge for both teams as they need to stay atop their respective divisions.

SAR v Carolina
They both have two game winning streaks and they are both mired in the middle of their respective divisions. Carolina is behind Dynamic and Padnos in they tough Copper Division - SAR is tied with Dos behind Solomon in the Brass Division. CBS predicts a 104 - 100 thriller for Carolina.

There are also some games that CBS is pretty sure of:

Dos v The Rail
After The Rail dropped Pittsburgh starter Rashard Mendenhall prior to the start, CBS seems to be punishing him as a 39 point dog at home against your Commish. Whether it will be this wide a margin or not is irrelevant, Dos needs to end his two game losing streak and is counting on this....

Buffalo v Dynamic
Dynamic is by far the luckiest team in the league and CBS predicts that luck to run out this week against Buffalo. Whether it happens is largely a function of the way the Panthers and Buccaneers works out. If its on the ground, Buffalo should put up a load of points with Deangelo Williams and Derrick Ward both featuring. If the game goes in the air, all bets are off and Dynamic could steal another win.

Sims v Ansam
Its probably no surprise to find this game in the blowout section. Ansam is lucky to have his J E T S Jets, Jets, Jets playing Buffalo, but his Ravens are against Minnesota. Its a tough week to be Ansam and CBS predicts a 31 point whooping for Sims and his Burnese Mountain dogs.

Be well gentlemen,

For those of you with negative luck factors above, good luck this week. For Dynamic, its time to pay the fiddler,

As always,
Your Commish