Wednesday, October 21, 2009

The Week that Was...

NFFLers:

Bob Dylan wrote the following words in 1963:

The line it is drawn
The curse it is cast
The slow one now
Will later be fast
As the present now
Will later be past
The order is
Rapidly fadin'.
And the first one now
Will later be last
For the times they are a-changin'.

Nothing could more clearly summarize the first week of the NFFL. Though in fairness to Bob Dylan, I think he was hoping the song would have a broader impact.

Regardless, last year ended at Milo's Bar and Bocce Court in St. Louis, MO with Smelters hoisting the Cathode Cup as Year 1 Champs. Team Padnos was there to offer a toast and good humor given that his squad finished a DISTANT last. His record was 2-15, his two wins...pure luck. He was last in scoring, last in transactions, and nowhere near second to last place.

To put Padnos' 128-point week 1 outburst in perspective, consider that last year he cleared 80 points 1 time. He scored less than 40 points twice, and less than 50, 5 times. There was not a consecutive 2 game output from Padnos that would have exceeded 128 points at any point.

Smelters, on the other hand, started last year with 62 points and only went below 100 points twice in the next 10 weeks. His 52-point season opening output this year was less than half his season average from a year ago.

The times are indeed changin'. Or maybe they're not...its only week 1.

Week 1 posted performances that can be broken into three pretty clear groups: High Speed, Semi Red, and Soft Lead.

High Speed:
-Padnos lead the pack with a huge performance from Drew Brees and above average performances from Tom Jones and the Vikings D. In fact, the only team member to be subpar was Brandon Jacobs, and I doubt he'll disappoint very often.
-Carolina - as predicted - went over the century mark (116) on strong efforts from Romo, Hightower, Jennings, and of course Adrian Peterson. I have a feeling this will happen a lot this year.
-Thalheimer - also predicted - posted 114 points on the back of 42! from the Eagles D. Granted, the Eagles D is not going to be the bellcow for Thalheimer all year, but Thalheimer also left 34 points on his bench.
-Dos - Yup, your Commish finished in the High Speed category on the back of a surprising contribution from the running game (who would have predicted 32 points combined from Mike Bell and Fred Jackson?).
-Solomon - Their 101 points came the hard way - with only Reggie Wayne going well beyond projections with 22 points. Like Thalheimer, Solomon lacks a weakness and will likely spend a lot of time in this category.

Semi Red:
-Dynamic - DMS opened with a win on 87 points - a win DuCovna will gladly take over Smelters.
-PSC - PSC also had a solid performance from his team in posting 81 points in a win. Purgatory at 81 points will not satisfy PSC, however. Devon Hester will likely feature in future lineups and boost the production.
-SAR - 76 points may get a victory some weeks, but it wasn't nearly enough this week against Solomon. SAR will get luckier - they had subpar performances from Ron Brown and Clint Portis, as well as an injury to Anthony Gonzalez. There is plenty of fight left in Long Beach.
-Buffalo - The surprising sacking of the Packers D and their 16 pts, plus the start of unproven Pats WR Sam Aiken, left Buffalo marooned on 70 points for the week. A few different lineup selections would have made a difference in points, but not in result. They lost by 46 to Carolina.

Soft Lead
Ansam - 65 points ain't a lot to be excited about. But a look behind the numbers shows that Ansam is unlikely to feature in this section again: Mark Sanchez may be a fantasy stud, and Ray Rice appears to be the man in Baltimore. Add Leon Washington to the mix and Ansam will be a tougher matchup.
PKay - This appears to be bad luck. Noone - literally noone on Team PKay - exceeded expectations in week 1. Its too early to call this a trend - probably more due to matchups - but this is not what Spencer had in mind. Expect trade offers....
SIMS - See note on Pkay above. The only member of Team Sims that showed on Sunday was the Giants D, and you never want your D leadin the week with 20 points. The Commish lives in fear of Sims and their Burnese Mountain Dog mascot. Sims won't be at the bottom very often this year.
Smelters - Oh my. What to say? I should probably let sleeping dogs lie on this one and see if this just a one-off week for Smelters. Last year he had his worst performance in week 1 and never looked back. I don't bet against my buddy and my boss....
The Rail - He lost 128 -45. Thats just nasty. See if Thalheimer will cut you a deal on one of his bench players (unlikely unless you score him a foundry account in the area) and troll the waiver wire like a lobsterman in July.

Until the weekend,
As always,
Your Commish

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