Let the Wild Rumpus Begin…Week 7.

Almost halfway through the season and the NFFL is beginning to take on the desperate feel of a high school dance when you know the time is short and you still haven’t stepped onto the floor. There are the class jocks –Buffalo, Padnos, Carolina, and Thalheimer - lording over the festivities with the quiet confidence that the world revolves around them. There is the class clown – Dynamic - whose timing and obliviousness spells good fortune – at least for now. There are the good, well intentioned kids whose considerable efforts will eventually payoff but probably not at this dance - Solomon, PSC, SAR, Dos, and Sims. There is the attendee who shows up in a cowboy hat and spurs prepared for the western theme when it was actually a semiformal - PKay. And of course, there are those that skipped the dance altogether to stay home and watch reruns of Monty Python’s Flying Circus - The Rail, Ansam, and Smelters. Regardless, the DJ has dimmed the lights and put “Forever Young” on the turntable. Get off the bleachers, walk across the gym floor, and ask…what’s the worst thing that can happen?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t4WadNAo7CI

Week 7 is here!

The week’s matchups are as follows:

#1 Padnos v #12 PKay

CBS is predicting a 101-92 win for PKay, a result that would have pretty obvious repercussions at the top of the league. PKay has a terrific matchup with Tomlinson and Sproles on the road at Kansas City while Padnos stud Drew Brees is on the road at Miami – not an easy task. CBS is interpreting this to predict the planetary realigning result above. We’ll see. PKay deserves a break this week.

#13 Ansam v #2 Thalheimer

The Second Annual Cupro Nickel Bowl kicks off in Philadelphia this weekend in a tilt between east coast powers on different ends of the rankings. Ansam fresh off a shocking win last week despite 11 interceptions by Mark Sanchez is not favored this week. Thalheimer is favored by almost thirty and with McNabb at Washington, you have to think the spread is justified. ISRI regulations prevent me from speculating on whats at stake in this gameJ

#3 Buffalo v #10 Solomon

CBS predicts the highest production to come from this game in a 115 – 104 win for Buffalo. There is no overstating the importance of this matchup to both squads: Buffalo is tied with Thalheimer for first in the Bronze Division and is trying to fend off PSC, and; Solomon is tied with your commish at 3-3 atop the Brass Division. While the season is too young to declare any loss for a division leading team a disaster, a loss would certainly be ill timed.

#11 Smelters v #4 Carolina

The owner of the World’s Greatest Ingot Maker is indeed down on his luck. Literally. Last weeks post showed that Smelters has had the worst luck in the league. Carolina, on the other hand, has been one of the luckier teams in the league. This week Carolina’s bellcow Adrian Peterson is at Pittsburgh which could create problems for Carolina. Your Commish is going out on a limb to predict a Smelter victory in week 7 – even though CBS says 113 – 80 Carolina.

#5 Sims v #8 SAR

This, the Second Annual Dienst Bowl, is predicted to be the tightest game of the week. SAR is 2-4 and Sims is 3-3 and both squads are looking to break out of their funk after loses in Week 6. CBS predicts 93-91 SAR, but Sims picked up someone named BenJarvus Green Ellis – the first 4-named player I have seen in the NFL. That alone should push Sims over the top for a special mention in the FY2009 Sims Metal Management Annual Report.

#6 Dos v #7 PSC

A rivalry game if there ever was one. Former coworkers – PSC-owner Savena taught your Commish how to sort brass at the Worlds Greatest Ingot Maker – then joined PSC to sell said brass items back to your Commish. In addition, PSC and Dos will be watching the Browns/Packers Game together in the friendly environs of Browns Stadium. Thank goodness we’ll have our children if one of us gets ahead in this matchup. Your Commish is favored 102-89 and really needs a win. PSC – at 4-2 – needs the victory to stay apace of Thalheimer and Buffalo.

#9 Dynamic v #14 The Rail

The Cubs traded Lew Brock to the Cardinals. The Astros traded Curt Shilling to the Phillies, and the Red Sox once traded a certain pitcher/hitter to the Yankees. This week The Rail traded Peyton Manning to Dynamic. Cedric Benson is a decent player, but Peyton Manning is, well, Peyton Manning. Last year The Rail had a good year despite such personnel decisions (see Bironas, Rod) and Dynamic won the Nancy Reagan Award for “Just Saying No” to all trade offers. The Rail will take it on the chin this week as CBS is likely correct in their prediction of a 111-79 Dynamic win.

So that’s all we have for the week.

Good Luck on the Dance Floor,

As Always,

Your Comish

Welcome to the Blog

NFFLers:
I decided to upgrade our communication forum as a way to keep Smelters owner Nagusky interested in the league. Last year, when he was atop the power ranking and perched atop his division, every day involved pleasant chit chat around the corporate water bubbler about his great draft, Matt Forte, trade options, the works. Now that he's trailing Padnos by 4 game and mired at 1-5, I get nothing but crickets out of the executive wing. So this blog is my antidote to keep the scene fresh.

In all seriousness, I have been thinking about a way to communicate with you outside the framework of email - while at the same time offering you, our suppliers, a more clever way to offer feedback. This forum is not a replacement for the League Message Board. That's still the best way to ask for trades, shout your frustration over waiver wire inactivity, and poke fun at Progress Rail for not knowing the difference between Rashard Mendenhall and Bake McBride. However, this Blog is cleaner, more 2010, and more capable of dealing with whatever tomfoolery your league has planned. For example, if I want to show you a photo of the aforementioned Philadelphia Phillie...I can do it:

Now for some ground rules:
1. Unless Spencer is the one swearing, its best we keep this clean.
2. This is an invite only Blog, so non-participants cannot access the posts and see whats happening. It provides you a safe haven to revel in the frivolity of football.
3. You'll notice I put a stream of copper related news on the left - thats designed to keep you focused on whats really important.
4. You should put this blog in your web browser favorites so you can easily access it for updates.
5. I will try to send message board reminders when I update this so you can stay up to date.

So welcome to the NFFL Blog.

From the world of $3 Cu,
Your Commish

The Week that Was ... Let the Wild Rumpus Begin ... Week 6

Well, here we go. Week 6 is upon us and every team in the league seems anxious to make a deal!!! There were two trades on the week involving PKay, Sims MM, Thalheimer, and Dos. In addition, the Message Board lit up after the waiver cycle on Wednesday as almost everyone is trying to get better. Even Smelters, currently mired at 1-4, believes a nice run will result in a playoff birth. The fact is, parody has indeed taken over, and an unexpected good performance by any roster player can create a win. The key there is "unexpected." Everyone knows Peyton Manning will have a solid outing most weeks. But when Ricky Williams puts up 13 fantasy points on Monday night to lead Metalico Buffalo to a 1-pt come from behind win over The Rail, thats unexpected. Its just as unexpected when your star receiver is sitting on the bench because of terrible play, and then hangs 35 fantasy points on a pretty good defense. That is exactly what happened last week to Carolina, who played the percentages and sat Rowdy Roddy White on the road at San Fran. All White did was score twice (30 and 90 yards) and put up 210 yards overall. Thats a monster day. Carolina won by a point anyway which is the only reason Carolina owner Paul Siegel isn't staggering down the beach in Hilton Head with a six day beard and bottle of Wild Turkey.

Congrats to everyone on trying for the unexpected...keep it up!

In a conversation yesterday with the owner of the Worlds Greatest Ingot Maker, Mr. Nagusky mentioned that his "defense was a sieve." In other words, he felt he was scoring enough each week to beat most teams but still had a 1-4 record. Does he have a point? The concomitant point to this is Dynamic Metal - who has a record of 4-1 despite the fact that he has a harder time scoring than Andrew Bernard from The Office. The quick answer is yes, Smelters does have a point. The reason? Luck. Sometimes you win weeks 55-50, and sometimes you lose weeks 102-107. It all comes down to matchups and timing.

There is a way to quantify or measure ones luck, however. The Breakdown Standings on the League Board is a measurement of your overall record if you played a single team each week. In other words, Dynamic Metal beat me in week 2 pretty decisively. However, if Dynamic were my opponent each week, my record would be 4-1 against him. He happened to play me the only week during the season where the matchups were in his favor enough to win. To measure ones luck, then, one must understand "Breakdown Records" versus "overall records." Here they are:



Your luck factor is a simple differential between you overall win % and your breakdown %. Put simply - if your number above is positive - you've been lucky. If its negative, you're unlucky. So Smelters has a legit beef, his winning percentage should be 25% higher than it is. Similarly, Dynamic should be 2-3 at best based on their points - luckiness has them at 4-1.

As mentioned above Week 6 is upon us, so lets take in at the games:

There are a few games that CBS predicts will be very close. In fact, based on CBS's inability to predict scores - the following spreads are well beyond CBS's ability to predict and could go either way:

Padnos vs. Smelters
Smelters can begin digging out of their early season hole with this game against division leading Padnos. CBS is predicting a 2 point win for Smelters which is probably required if Smelters has any designs on the playoffs.

PSC and PKay
CBS is predicting a good ole fashioned donnybrook in this one - 106-103 for PSC. Based on the matchups it seems likely to put up this many points - regardless of who comes out on top.

Solomon v Thalheimer
In a game between two of the top teams in the league - Solomon travels down the coast to meet East Coast legend Thalheimer. CBS predicts another tight one - 98-95 Solomon. Both teams feature running backs that may or may not get time in the starting lineup - Willie Parker for Solomon and Cadillac Williams for Thal. This game is huge for both teams as they need to stay atop their respective divisions.

SAR v Carolina
They both have two game winning streaks and they are both mired in the middle of their respective divisions. Carolina is behind Dynamic and Padnos in they tough Copper Division - SAR is tied with Dos behind Solomon in the Brass Division. CBS predicts a 104 - 100 thriller for Carolina.

There are also some games that CBS is pretty sure of:

Dos v The Rail
After The Rail dropped Pittsburgh starter Rashard Mendenhall prior to the start, CBS seems to be punishing him as a 39 point dog at home against your Commish. Whether it will be this wide a margin or not is irrelevant, Dos needs to end his two game losing streak and is counting on this....

Buffalo v Dynamic
Dynamic is by far the luckiest team in the league and CBS predicts that luck to run out this week against Buffalo. Whether it happens is largely a function of the way the Panthers and Buccaneers works out. If its on the ground, Buffalo should put up a load of points with Deangelo Williams and Derrick Ward both featuring. If the game goes in the air, all bets are off and Dynamic could steal another win.

Sims v Ansam
Its probably no surprise to find this game in the blowout section. Ansam is lucky to have his J E T S Jets, Jets, Jets playing Buffalo, but his Ravens are against Minnesota. Its a tough week to be Ansam and CBS predicts a 31 point whooping for Sims and his Burnese Mountain dogs.

Be well gentlemen,

For those of you with negative luck factors above, good luck this week. For Dynamic, its time to pay the fiddler,

As always,
Your Commish