NFFLers:
Before we get started, Happy Birthday to Team Ansam owner Ben Zager (actual day is Monday the 7th per Facebook)... Say it together, J E T S , Jets, Jets, Jets. Have a great day Ben.
As we review last week, I spent some time looking at the past CBS Previews vs. actual results to see how good a job CBS was doing at predicting performances...These are some of my conclusions:
1. Their record in picking winners is excellent: In 21 games so far this year, they picked the winner correctly 13 times.
2. In Week 1, CBS overestimated our collective scoring performance by an average of 9.7 points per team. In other words, we let them down as only 5 of us outscored the Preview prediction.
3. In Week 2, CBS improved and only overestimated our collective performance by an avergae of 8 points per team. As a whole, we disappointed but not by as much as Week 1.
4. In Week 3 the wheels fell off. CBS overestimated our collective performance by an average of almost 16! points per team. Only 1 team - Solomon - beat the analysts expectations.
The only logical conclusion one can draw from the above is that the Previews are usually correct: if you are predicted to lose, you'll probably lose. However, the magnitude of the scoring will be skewed by CBS's complete inability to predict our teams actual performance. In fact, it seems to matter which team we're talking about as CBS has some of our teams pretty well figured out. For example, Smelters have averaged scoring just 2 points less than CBS predicts. PKay on the other hand, scores - on average - 32 points per game less than CBS predicts. Therefore, if CBS predicts your team to lose to PKay by 5 points - they're likely wrong, especially if you are Team Solomon, the only team who has beaten CBS's prediction each week. Here is how CBS is doing with each of our squads:
Team Avg Diff
PKay -32
The Rail -26
PSC -26
Carolina -18
Ansam -15
Metalico Buffalo -13
Dynamnic -10
SAR -10
Padnos -8
Sims -7
Dos -3
Smelters -2
Thalheimer +7
Solomon +13
The above just proves that not even CBS and their mounds of data and complex algorithms really knows whats happening in the NFL. Not sure about you, but I find that reassuring. Thats what makes the NFFL so fun for 4 months a year.....
OK, enough math. Lets look at last week in order of power rankings:
Dynamic vs Padnos:
In a matchup of the two top ranked squads in the league, Dynamic won by 17 in a game that lacked inspiration from either side. 75-58 is a sleepy performance for these two and only reinforces the primary weakness of DMS - they have a harder time scoring than Screech from Saved by the Bell. Padnos suffered from the bad play of normally reliable starters - namely Drew Brees who put up 5 points against Buffalo. Ouch.
Thalheimer vs. Metalico Buffalo:
This game is the NFFL equivalent of Buster Douglas vs. Mike Tyson; Finland vs. Soviets in WWII, and Appalachian St vs. Michigan. East Coast power Thalheimer was rolling headed into this game, while Metalico Buffalo was making multiple moves to secure enough points to be competitive. Well, like Buster Douglas, the Mountaineers of App State, and the Finns before him, Buffalo GM Ostendorf pulled all the right strings to secure a 79-79 tie. It was not the win Buffalo wanted, but it was enough to save face given the considerable disparity of squad depth and talent.
Carolina vs. Federal Metal Dos:
Here was my prediction from last week: "Carolina is playing your Commish this week in a game he's favored to win by 15. It could be wider, or Carolina could lose. This game is crazy to pick because of the nuttiness of real NFL teams like the Bills, Cowboys, and Bengals. If this game were in Vegas they'd probably pull it off the board." Your Commish turned in a commanding performance on the back of Lucky Pierre Thomas' 24 second-half fantasy points against Buffalo. Final score was 92-73...
Sims vs The Rail:
Sims was supposed to get pounded by Progress Rail. The Rail would have won had Cowboys running back Felix Jones been healthy for the second half. He wasn't and Sims won 78-76. For his part, Sims guessed right by selecting Matt Schaub over Joe Flacco (University of Delaware) to start at QB. Schaub scored 23 pts to Flacco's 17 which proved critical given the spread. By the way, Sims' decision of who to start at QB has to be tormenting each week....I am sure there are at least a few teams who would gladly take one of these guys off your hands Lew/Justin.
Solomon vs. PKay:
CBS predicted a tie in this one and Solomon didn't let it happen in a 89-75 victory. A great performance from Aaron Rodgers buoyed the Solomon attack, while the normally reliable PKay receiving corps let them down. Solomon won more than the game, with the injuries to Gore and Parker, Team Solomon has fewer pregame decisions to cloud the week. Its all hands on deck for the Solomon backfield with likely starts for Buckhalter and Derrick Ward until Frank Gore can handle the load for San Fran.
Smelters vs. Ansam:
Smelter owner Nagusky was pretty pumped for their matchup with Team Ansam. Week 2 featured a breakout game for Chris Johnson and Smelters was hoping for the same from Steve Slaton and Larry Johnson. Well, it didn't happen and the wishbone attack generated 21 total points in a decisive 75-64 loss. Ansam had a nice day from Mark Sanchez (seems to be a theme) and a great day from Baltimore wideout Derrick Mason to win their first game of the year...
PSC vs. SAR:
CBS predicted a 13 point PSC victory and PSC won by 9.... PSC's Maurice Jones-Drew had been a hard luck case. He was drafted 2nd, and until last week had been one of the least productive 1st round picks. 31 points later and he's back on track to justify the high draft choice. SAR had an awesome day from Vernon Davis - the 49er tight end. Unfortunately Davis was on the bench - a decision that cost SAR the game....it happens.
So after last week, the New Power Rankings are:
Rank. Team (places moved in last week)
1. Thalheimer (+2)
2. Solomon (+4)
tie 3. Dynamic (-1)
tie 3. Federal Metal Dos (+5)
5. Padnos (-4)
6. Sims (-1)
7. Metalico Buffalo (even)
8. Carolina (-4)
9. PSC (+3)
10. SAR (+3)
11. PKay (-2)
12. Rail (-1)
13. Smelters (-3)
14. Ansam (even)
Its time for Bye weeks gents, so get ready to be a real GM...
As always,
Your Commish
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
A Belated Week that Was and LTWRB - Week 3
EDITORS NOTE:
This was to be sent at around 11 AM today. Failure to do so is an oversight by your commish...Sorry. Read on..
Well Gents, here we are for Week 3. It seems like yesterday that we were fumbling through our draft at 10 PM EST. With two games under our belt, and another approaching in a few hours, we all probably feel like we know something about our team - the good and bad. But what can we really know after two weeks???
Given that I did not have time to properly post a Week that Was segment this week, I figure I would do a bit of analysis on each team - past, present, and future. So here we go in order of the League Power Rankings:
1. Team Padnos (2-0 in Copper Division)
Strength: Its real simple: Drew Brees is the player most likely to be awarded the League MVP in January and have Padnos hoisting the Cathode Cup in St. Louis. His dominance is complete: there were four QB's taken in the 1st round of the draft (Brees, Manning, Brady, Sanchez) and Brees is almost outscoring the other three combined.
Weakness: Team Padnos is shallower than Joey from Friends. Bye weeks for key players (Brees and any of the RB's) will likely mean losses for Padnos if the competition is tough.
Matchup: Their toughest test is this week against Dynamic Metal. They're an underdog for the first time all year, and guessing from the schedule, should expect a loss.
End Analysis: This is a great team with the potential to win 12 games if they stay healthy. If Padnos owner Heitmeier decides to pull a Billy Bidwell and get involved, 8-9 wins is more likely.
2. Team Dynamic Metal Solutions (2-0 in Copper Division)
Strength: Management. It is more than luck when management produces a top three scorers of Cedric Benson, Marques Colston, and the Packer D. Who among us saw that coming? Things have gone so well for DMS, that Matt Forte is starting despite being the least productive player drafted in the 1st Round.
Weakness: Scoring. DMS is 4th in scoring so far, which could be a problem if the guys above cool off at all.
Matchup: DMS is expected to lay the wood to Padnos this weekend which would give them a commanding lead in the Copper Division. All signs point to that being likely and for DMS owner DuCovna to be completely insufferable in the near term.
End Analysis: This team is likely to be good all season. If Forte gets right, with all other players maintaining form, DMS will be awesome.
3. Thalheimer (2-0 in Bronze Division)
Strength: The Draft. I said after the draft that Thalheimer was loaded, and they are. McNabb gets hurt? Hello Kerry Collins. Cadillac Williams gets hurt? Hello Julius Jones. It doesn't matter what happens, these guys are going to score more than Shawn Kemp. When Cavs guard Delonte West was arrested in DC last week he had fewer weapons than Rich Reiner has on this squad.
Weakness: Reiners car of choice - the Porsche Cayenne - doesn't have a third seat for carrying extra kids
Matchup: An 11-point dog to Buffalo. This is one of those weeks where slight injury knocks, schedule, and opponent matchups might conspire against Thalheimer. It will be a rare occurance - but as fellow owners, we need this to be a loss if we want to keep Thalheimer in our sights.
End Analysis: They're the most balanced team, in the weakest division, with 12 legit players. I dread my matchup with them and everyone else should too.
4. Carolina (1-1 in Copper Division)
Strength: That guy in Minnesota with 28 on his jersey. There were 14 RB's drafted in the first two rounds and they are averaging 12.5 pts per game. Peterson is averaging twice that. Case closed.
Weakness: Tony Romo is having a pretty good fantasy season and a pretty lousy real one. If he sits, Carolina is saddled with Kyle Orton, which will hardly thrill this perennial power from the Palmetto State.
Matchup: Carolina is playing your Commish this week in a game he's favored to win by 15. It could be wider, or Carolina could lose. This game is crazy to pick because of the nuttiness of real NFL teams like the Bills, Cowboys, and Bengals. If this game were in Vegas they'd probably pull it off the board.
End Analysis: Expect Carolina to linger in this position all year. The caveat to that point is that they play in the Copper Division and are already in 3rd place in the division. They could be a fatality of the lopsided schedule if they don't stay lucky.
5. Sims (1-1 in Copper Division)
Strength: The Aerial Attack. With weaopns Joe Flacco (University of Delaware) and Matt Straub throwing the ball, plus Don Driver and Andre Johnson catching it, they have strength in the air.
Weakness: Jekyll and Hyde. The air attack is less consistent than the wishbone, so Sims has had two weeks of feast and famine scoring.
Matchup: They are expected to be pounded by The Rail. That just sounds funny to write.....
End Analysis: Like Thalheimer, Sims has good players on the bench is not real worried about bye week lapses. They'll be decent all year.
6. Solomon (1-1 in Brass Division)
Strength: Frank Gore. See Peterson, Adrian above. Gore is just as good but doesn't star in as many Nike commercials.
Weakness: Management by committee. Mssrs. Solomon and Fink have to decide which of the following to play each week: Willie Parker, Correll Buckhalter, Derrick Ward. They can only pick one....I couldn't make that call myself let alone do it in concert with a coworker. I would pay to be around when that decision gets made.
Matchup: They are locked in a 98-98 tie with PKay. The 2nd running back could make all the difference....
End Analysis: They lost in the last quarter of the last game last week and they could easily be 2-0. Their inclusion in the NFFL has been a wonderful addition.
7. Metalico Buffalo (1-1 in Bronze Division)
Strength: It was tight end...but they have managed their way out of that issue. Now their strength is the somewhat surprising performance of Big Ben, Dallas Clark, and Marion Barber. 1st Round pick DeAngelo Williams is their 4th best player so far!
Weakness: Overwork. Sometimes its wise to set the team and let them go. If Buffalo owner Ostendorf does anything wrong, it will be to bench the wrong player at the wrong time....
Matchup: A favorite over Thalheimer. This would be HUGE for league newby Buffalo to take down East Coast legend Thalheimer. The equivalent of the Jets beating the Colts.
End Analysis: Ostendorf is GM of the Year so far. His moves have worked, his determination has been inspiring. The Chamber of Commerce in Buffalo should run a campaign celebrating this success. Lord knows they have little else to write about.
8. Federal Metal Dos (1-1 in Brass Division)
Strength: Like Sims, FM Dos went heavy at receiver and it shows with a leading aerial attack.
Weakness: Dos's running game has been decent so far - but its loaded with conflicts between players (Jackson and Lynch for Buffalo and Thomas and Bell for New Orleans). The points will be there, but who the heck will score them?
Matchup: Heavy dog at Carolina. See above
End Analysis: I actually have a lot of faith in this team. They are high scoring and will continue to be...a big if.
9. PKay Metals (1-1 in Brass Division)
Strength: I think if I asked Spencer right now, he'd be as confused as I am as to what the overall strength of PKay is. I think the potential of a receiver core with recently acquired Mario Manningham (from Iowa), Calvin Johnson and Chad Johnson are enough to be excited about the coming weeks.
Weakness: Running the ball will be a challenge most weeks with a backfield of Jamal Lewis, Mike Bush, and Steve Jackson. Only Jackson is a regular, and he plays in St Louis.
Matchup: They are locked in a 98-98 draw with Solomon.
End Analysis. The wins may come, but this team has the same record in the same division with Dos, but has scored 33 points less. Scoring will be an issue all year unless the receiving corp does well.
10. Smelters (0-2 in Copper Division)
Strength: The wishbone. On paper Chris Johnson, Larry Johnson, and Steve Slaton are a formidable threesome (insert joke here).
Weakness: Save one 45-pt outburst from Chris Johnson, the above group would otherwise be the crappiest triplets since the cast of 3's Company was assembled. It may be as bad a year to be a Smelter as it is to be a smelter.
Matchup: Favored at Ansam. Smelters need this win or they are probably eliminated from the playoffs. I cannot imagine them beating out Padnos, DMS, Sims and Carolina if they start 0-3.
End Analysis: Smelters ownership is going to dig, fight, and work to avoid the pits. His team may lack quality overall without a change of fortune at the top, but they'll trade and bargain for points all year.
11. The Rail (1-1 in Brass Division)
Strength: The Rail has a gorgeous wife and a beautiful 8 month old daughter. He also has both Mannings on his team so he could be a trade candidate at some point.
Weakness: If I had to picture what batting against Nolan Ryan was like in 1983, thats how hard it will be for The Rail to put up points most weeks.
Matchup: They are expected to pound Sims. That still feels funny to write.
End Analysis: The Rail made a mockery of your commish last year and he has the makings of a team that could do it again. The difference is that this year, he doesn't have a consistent scoring threat other than at QB.
12. PSC (1-1 in Bronze Division)
Strength: Pittsburgh D.
Weakness: Taking the aforementioned D in the 2nd round may have cost too many points from field players like Roddy White, Ryan Grant, etc...
Matchup: a 13 pt fav over SAR. Phil Rivers may pull this off on his own..
End Analysis: 12th is too low for PSC, but the playoffs might be too high unless points start to flow.
13. SAR (0-2 in Brass Division)
Strength: Sims Adams has been hurt by the mediocre play of Tom Brady and Clint Portis. I know this sounds like a weakness, but when you're ranked 13th in a 14 team league, your Commish is only going to be so charitable.
Weakness: See strengths.
Matchup: An underdog at PSC. This alphabet game is going to come down to whether Portis can do well versus Detroit, or if Brady can play well against ATL. Otherwise its PSC all the way.
End Analysis: Long Beach is really underrated in the Greater LA area. Thats a good thing....
14. Team Ansam (0-2 in Bronze Division)
Strength: Baltimore receiver Derrick Mason. He's a stud and will have a breakout year.
Weakness: While its fun to root for players you like - fantasy football is all about the cruel calculation of numbers. Ansam has more Jets on it than an O'Hare runway. This is a real problem for bye weeks and injuries.
Matchup: An underdog against Smelters and the Jets are playing Tennessee. Its should be a tough week for Ansam again.
End Analysis: Controls enough of the Cupro Nickel market that NFFL status is largely irrelevant. Thats probably a good thing this year for our favorite team owner Ben Zager.
Good luck in the trenches gentlemen.
Your Commish
This was to be sent at around 11 AM today. Failure to do so is an oversight by your commish...Sorry. Read on..
Well Gents, here we are for Week 3. It seems like yesterday that we were fumbling through our draft at 10 PM EST. With two games under our belt, and another approaching in a few hours, we all probably feel like we know something about our team - the good and bad. But what can we really know after two weeks???
Given that I did not have time to properly post a Week that Was segment this week, I figure I would do a bit of analysis on each team - past, present, and future. So here we go in order of the League Power Rankings:
1. Team Padnos (2-0 in Copper Division)
Strength: Its real simple: Drew Brees is the player most likely to be awarded the League MVP in January and have Padnos hoisting the Cathode Cup in St. Louis. His dominance is complete: there were four QB's taken in the 1st round of the draft (Brees, Manning, Brady, Sanchez) and Brees is almost outscoring the other three combined.
Weakness: Team Padnos is shallower than Joey from Friends. Bye weeks for key players (Brees and any of the RB's) will likely mean losses for Padnos if the competition is tough.
Matchup: Their toughest test is this week against Dynamic Metal. They're an underdog for the first time all year, and guessing from the schedule, should expect a loss.
End Analysis: This is a great team with the potential to win 12 games if they stay healthy. If Padnos owner Heitmeier decides to pull a Billy Bidwell and get involved, 8-9 wins is more likely.
2. Team Dynamic Metal Solutions (2-0 in Copper Division)
Strength: Management. It is more than luck when management produces a top three scorers of Cedric Benson, Marques Colston, and the Packer D. Who among us saw that coming? Things have gone so well for DMS, that Matt Forte is starting despite being the least productive player drafted in the 1st Round.
Weakness: Scoring. DMS is 4th in scoring so far, which could be a problem if the guys above cool off at all.
Matchup: DMS is expected to lay the wood to Padnos this weekend which would give them a commanding lead in the Copper Division. All signs point to that being likely and for DMS owner DuCovna to be completely insufferable in the near term.
End Analysis: This team is likely to be good all season. If Forte gets right, with all other players maintaining form, DMS will be awesome.
3. Thalheimer (2-0 in Bronze Division)
Strength: The Draft. I said after the draft that Thalheimer was loaded, and they are. McNabb gets hurt? Hello Kerry Collins. Cadillac Williams gets hurt? Hello Julius Jones. It doesn't matter what happens, these guys are going to score more than Shawn Kemp. When Cavs guard Delonte West was arrested in DC last week he had fewer weapons than Rich Reiner has on this squad.
Weakness: Reiners car of choice - the Porsche Cayenne - doesn't have a third seat for carrying extra kids
Matchup: An 11-point dog to Buffalo. This is one of those weeks where slight injury knocks, schedule, and opponent matchups might conspire against Thalheimer. It will be a rare occurance - but as fellow owners, we need this to be a loss if we want to keep Thalheimer in our sights.
End Analysis: They're the most balanced team, in the weakest division, with 12 legit players. I dread my matchup with them and everyone else should too.
4. Carolina (1-1 in Copper Division)
Strength: That guy in Minnesota with 28 on his jersey. There were 14 RB's drafted in the first two rounds and they are averaging 12.5 pts per game. Peterson is averaging twice that. Case closed.
Weakness: Tony Romo is having a pretty good fantasy season and a pretty lousy real one. If he sits, Carolina is saddled with Kyle Orton, which will hardly thrill this perennial power from the Palmetto State.
Matchup: Carolina is playing your Commish this week in a game he's favored to win by 15. It could be wider, or Carolina could lose. This game is crazy to pick because of the nuttiness of real NFL teams like the Bills, Cowboys, and Bengals. If this game were in Vegas they'd probably pull it off the board.
End Analysis: Expect Carolina to linger in this position all year. The caveat to that point is that they play in the Copper Division and are already in 3rd place in the division. They could be a fatality of the lopsided schedule if they don't stay lucky.
5. Sims (1-1 in Copper Division)
Strength: The Aerial Attack. With weaopns Joe Flacco (University of Delaware) and Matt Straub throwing the ball, plus Don Driver and Andre Johnson catching it, they have strength in the air.
Weakness: Jekyll and Hyde. The air attack is less consistent than the wishbone, so Sims has had two weeks of feast and famine scoring.
Matchup: They are expected to be pounded by The Rail. That just sounds funny to write.....
End Analysis: Like Thalheimer, Sims has good players on the bench is not real worried about bye week lapses. They'll be decent all year.
6. Solomon (1-1 in Brass Division)
Strength: Frank Gore. See Peterson, Adrian above. Gore is just as good but doesn't star in as many Nike commercials.
Weakness: Management by committee. Mssrs. Solomon and Fink have to decide which of the following to play each week: Willie Parker, Correll Buckhalter, Derrick Ward. They can only pick one....I couldn't make that call myself let alone do it in concert with a coworker. I would pay to be around when that decision gets made.
Matchup: They are locked in a 98-98 tie with PKay. The 2nd running back could make all the difference....
End Analysis: They lost in the last quarter of the last game last week and they could easily be 2-0. Their inclusion in the NFFL has been a wonderful addition.
7. Metalico Buffalo (1-1 in Bronze Division)
Strength: It was tight end...but they have managed their way out of that issue. Now their strength is the somewhat surprising performance of Big Ben, Dallas Clark, and Marion Barber. 1st Round pick DeAngelo Williams is their 4th best player so far!
Weakness: Overwork. Sometimes its wise to set the team and let them go. If Buffalo owner Ostendorf does anything wrong, it will be to bench the wrong player at the wrong time....
Matchup: A favorite over Thalheimer. This would be HUGE for league newby Buffalo to take down East Coast legend Thalheimer. The equivalent of the Jets beating the Colts.
End Analysis: Ostendorf is GM of the Year so far. His moves have worked, his determination has been inspiring. The Chamber of Commerce in Buffalo should run a campaign celebrating this success. Lord knows they have little else to write about.
8. Federal Metal Dos (1-1 in Brass Division)
Strength: Like Sims, FM Dos went heavy at receiver and it shows with a leading aerial attack.
Weakness: Dos's running game has been decent so far - but its loaded with conflicts between players (Jackson and Lynch for Buffalo and Thomas and Bell for New Orleans). The points will be there, but who the heck will score them?
Matchup: Heavy dog at Carolina. See above
End Analysis: I actually have a lot of faith in this team. They are high scoring and will continue to be...a big if.
9. PKay Metals (1-1 in Brass Division)
Strength: I think if I asked Spencer right now, he'd be as confused as I am as to what the overall strength of PKay is. I think the potential of a receiver core with recently acquired Mario Manningham (from Iowa), Calvin Johnson and Chad Johnson are enough to be excited about the coming weeks.
Weakness: Running the ball will be a challenge most weeks with a backfield of Jamal Lewis, Mike Bush, and Steve Jackson. Only Jackson is a regular, and he plays in St Louis.
Matchup: They are locked in a 98-98 draw with Solomon.
End Analysis. The wins may come, but this team has the same record in the same division with Dos, but has scored 33 points less. Scoring will be an issue all year unless the receiving corp does well.
10. Smelters (0-2 in Copper Division)
Strength: The wishbone. On paper Chris Johnson, Larry Johnson, and Steve Slaton are a formidable threesome (insert joke here).
Weakness: Save one 45-pt outburst from Chris Johnson, the above group would otherwise be the crappiest triplets since the cast of 3's Company was assembled. It may be as bad a year to be a Smelter as it is to be a smelter.
Matchup: Favored at Ansam. Smelters need this win or they are probably eliminated from the playoffs. I cannot imagine them beating out Padnos, DMS, Sims and Carolina if they start 0-3.
End Analysis: Smelters ownership is going to dig, fight, and work to avoid the pits. His team may lack quality overall without a change of fortune at the top, but they'll trade and bargain for points all year.
11. The Rail (1-1 in Brass Division)
Strength: The Rail has a gorgeous wife and a beautiful 8 month old daughter. He also has both Mannings on his team so he could be a trade candidate at some point.
Weakness: If I had to picture what batting against Nolan Ryan was like in 1983, thats how hard it will be for The Rail to put up points most weeks.
Matchup: They are expected to pound Sims. That still feels funny to write.
End Analysis: The Rail made a mockery of your commish last year and he has the makings of a team that could do it again. The difference is that this year, he doesn't have a consistent scoring threat other than at QB.
12. PSC (1-1 in Bronze Division)
Strength: Pittsburgh D.
Weakness: Taking the aforementioned D in the 2nd round may have cost too many points from field players like Roddy White, Ryan Grant, etc...
Matchup: a 13 pt fav over SAR. Phil Rivers may pull this off on his own..
End Analysis: 12th is too low for PSC, but the playoffs might be too high unless points start to flow.
13. SAR (0-2 in Brass Division)
Strength: Sims Adams has been hurt by the mediocre play of Tom Brady and Clint Portis. I know this sounds like a weakness, but when you're ranked 13th in a 14 team league, your Commish is only going to be so charitable.
Weakness: See strengths.
Matchup: An underdog at PSC. This alphabet game is going to come down to whether Portis can do well versus Detroit, or if Brady can play well against ATL. Otherwise its PSC all the way.
End Analysis: Long Beach is really underrated in the Greater LA area. Thats a good thing....
14. Team Ansam (0-2 in Bronze Division)
Strength: Baltimore receiver Derrick Mason. He's a stud and will have a breakout year.
Weakness: While its fun to root for players you like - fantasy football is all about the cruel calculation of numbers. Ansam has more Jets on it than an O'Hare runway. This is a real problem for bye weeks and injuries.
Matchup: An underdog against Smelters and the Jets are playing Tennessee. Its should be a tough week for Ansam again.
End Analysis: Controls enough of the Cupro Nickel market that NFFL status is largely irrelevant. Thats probably a good thing this year for our favorite team owner Ben Zager.
Good luck in the trenches gentlemen.
Your Commish
Let the Wild Rumpus Begin Week 2
Time to kick off Week 2.
Its been said that you never know how tough you are until you've been punched in the nose. Similarly, week 2 of the fantasy season is the week that begins to answer all of week one's questions:
- is defending champion Smelter really only capable of 60 weekly points?
- is Spencer going to make the trade for PKay that turns the season around?
- is Padnos for real?
You get the drift....
If our league were to be broadcast on network television, and if I were the Producer who got to decide who was on prime time and who was on local access, this is how I'd lay out the schedule:
Local Coverage restricted to Western New York and the Greater Baltimore Metro Area not including Washington DC:
Ansam v Metalico Buffalo. Both teams are searching for an identity, though the Ansam identity can be described as J...E...T...S Jets Jets Jets. Metalico made some bold moves on the mid week waiver wire. They failed to sign Devin Hester (he went to Smelters), but they were able to rid themselves of some of their 7 tight ends. Buffalo is an overwhelming 28 point favorite - but CBS seems a bit generous in their assumptions on the performance of Team Metalico. Figure Ansam to make this close on the back of NFL Rookie of the Year Mark Sanchez.
Super Regional Coverage:
The Rail v Solomon. Boston has always been good at generating fan interest outside the market (see Celtics and Red Sox and Dropkick Murphys), so its no surprise that the network wants Team Solomon playing to a broad audience. Their matchup against Team Progress Rail is projected as one of the tightest of the week, but the real drama this week is the "management-by-committee" structure at Team Solomon. Their second running back selection each week is likely to be the subject of greater internal debate than the value of #2 Cu. Lets see if the decisions go their way in Week 2...
PSC v Padnos. This is a fairy tale game between two teams that were at the bottom of the power standings in Year 1. One of these teams will emerge as the "Arizona Cardinals" of 2009 as both are 1-0 and expected to be around 100 points this week. If you are a fan of the game - and not just a fan of the local squad, than this game is a must see.
DMS v Dos. CBS predicts a 3 point squeeker in favor of DMS. Dos' running game is in taters, but their receiving game is the second ranked in the league. 3 points in either direction is likely in this matchup - but pride is on the line in this one. Dos cannot afford the sushi he'll have to buy if DMS's Ducovna beats Federal Metal reps Smelters and Dos in back-to-back weeks.
Nationally televised 4 PM game:
Thalheimer v SAR. This one has one runaway team - Thalheimer, against a good team hoping to rebound in week 2 - SAR. The game also features cross country travel for Thalheimer and their vaunted ground game. SAR really needs this win to avoid sitting at the bottom of the tough Brass Division.
Sunday Night Football:
Carolina v PKay: CBS predicts this one to be the shootout of the week. Carolina may suffer from having to travel across country, but their balance running and throwing should give them options on the road. PKay had some bad matchups in week 1 that may explain a flaccid performance in a loss. For Spencers' sake, lets hope thats the case so they can rebound at home in a win week 2.
Monday Night Football:
Smelters v Sims: The returning champ always gets prime billing. Both teams are 0-1. The winner of this game can dismiss week 1 as early season jitters; the loser has to start rethinking their season. As if the national stage is not motivation enough, both teams have hit the waiver wire in search of the one ingredient to galvanize the attack. This is one to stay up late for...
So sink into the sofa, fire up the laptop to NFFL.com, and enjoy Week 2. Good luck to all,
As always,
Your Commish
Its been said that you never know how tough you are until you've been punched in the nose. Similarly, week 2 of the fantasy season is the week that begins to answer all of week one's questions:
- is defending champion Smelter really only capable of 60 weekly points?
- is Spencer going to make the trade for PKay that turns the season around?
- is Padnos for real?
You get the drift....
If our league were to be broadcast on network television, and if I were the Producer who got to decide who was on prime time and who was on local access, this is how I'd lay out the schedule:
Local Coverage restricted to Western New York and the Greater Baltimore Metro Area not including Washington DC:
Ansam v Metalico Buffalo. Both teams are searching for an identity, though the Ansam identity can be described as J...E...T...S Jets Jets Jets. Metalico made some bold moves on the mid week waiver wire. They failed to sign Devin Hester (he went to Smelters), but they were able to rid themselves of some of their 7 tight ends. Buffalo is an overwhelming 28 point favorite - but CBS seems a bit generous in their assumptions on the performance of Team Metalico. Figure Ansam to make this close on the back of NFL Rookie of the Year Mark Sanchez.
Super Regional Coverage:
The Rail v Solomon. Boston has always been good at generating fan interest outside the market (see Celtics and Red Sox and Dropkick Murphys), so its no surprise that the network wants Team Solomon playing to a broad audience. Their matchup against Team Progress Rail is projected as one of the tightest of the week, but the real drama this week is the "management-by-committee" structure at Team Solomon. Their second running back selection each week is likely to be the subject of greater internal debate than the value of #2 Cu. Lets see if the decisions go their way in Week 2...
PSC v Padnos. This is a fairy tale game between two teams that were at the bottom of the power standings in Year 1. One of these teams will emerge as the "Arizona Cardinals" of 2009 as both are 1-0 and expected to be around 100 points this week. If you are a fan of the game - and not just a fan of the local squad, than this game is a must see.
DMS v Dos. CBS predicts a 3 point squeeker in favor of DMS. Dos' running game is in taters, but their receiving game is the second ranked in the league. 3 points in either direction is likely in this matchup - but pride is on the line in this one. Dos cannot afford the sushi he'll have to buy if DMS's Ducovna beats Federal Metal reps Smelters and Dos in back-to-back weeks.
Nationally televised 4 PM game:
Thalheimer v SAR. This one has one runaway team - Thalheimer, against a good team hoping to rebound in week 2 - SAR. The game also features cross country travel for Thalheimer and their vaunted ground game. SAR really needs this win to avoid sitting at the bottom of the tough Brass Division.
Sunday Night Football:
Carolina v PKay: CBS predicts this one to be the shootout of the week. Carolina may suffer from having to travel across country, but their balance running and throwing should give them options on the road. PKay had some bad matchups in week 1 that may explain a flaccid performance in a loss. For Spencers' sake, lets hope thats the case so they can rebound at home in a win week 2.
Monday Night Football:
Smelters v Sims: The returning champ always gets prime billing. Both teams are 0-1. The winner of this game can dismiss week 1 as early season jitters; the loser has to start rethinking their season. As if the national stage is not motivation enough, both teams have hit the waiver wire in search of the one ingredient to galvanize the attack. This is one to stay up late for...
So sink into the sofa, fire up the laptop to NFFL.com, and enjoy Week 2. Good luck to all,
As always,
Your Commish
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