Time to kick off Week 2.
Its been said that you never know how tough you are until you've been punched in the nose. Similarly, week 2 of the fantasy season is the week that begins to answer all of week one's questions:
- is defending champion Smelter really only capable of 60 weekly points?
- is Spencer going to make the trade for PKay that turns the season around?
- is Padnos for real?
You get the drift....
If our league were to be broadcast on network television, and if I were the Producer who got to decide who was on prime time and who was on local access, this is how I'd lay out the schedule:
Local Coverage restricted to Western New York and the Greater Baltimore Metro Area not including Washington DC:
Ansam v Metalico Buffalo. Both teams are searching for an identity, though the Ansam identity can be described as J...E...T...S Jets Jets Jets. Metalico made some bold moves on the mid week waiver wire. They failed to sign Devin Hester (he went to Smelters), but they were able to rid themselves of some of their 7 tight ends. Buffalo is an overwhelming 28 point favorite - but CBS seems a bit generous in their assumptions on the performance of Team Metalico. Figure Ansam to make this close on the back of NFL Rookie of the Year Mark Sanchez.
Super Regional Coverage:
The Rail v Solomon. Boston has always been good at generating fan interest outside the market (see Celtics and Red Sox and Dropkick Murphys), so its no surprise that the network wants Team Solomon playing to a broad audience. Their matchup against Team Progress Rail is projected as one of the tightest of the week, but the real drama this week is the "management-by-committee" structure at Team Solomon. Their second running back selection each week is likely to be the subject of greater internal debate than the value of #2 Cu. Lets see if the decisions go their way in Week 2...
PSC v Padnos. This is a fairy tale game between two teams that were at the bottom of the power standings in Year 1. One of these teams will emerge as the "Arizona Cardinals" of 2009 as both are 1-0 and expected to be around 100 points this week. If you are a fan of the game - and not just a fan of the local squad, than this game is a must see.
DMS v Dos. CBS predicts a 3 point squeeker in favor of DMS. Dos' running game is in taters, but their receiving game is the second ranked in the league. 3 points in either direction is likely in this matchup - but pride is on the line in this one. Dos cannot afford the sushi he'll have to buy if DMS's Ducovna beats Federal Metal reps Smelters and Dos in back-to-back weeks.
Nationally televised 4 PM game:
Thalheimer v SAR. This one has one runaway team - Thalheimer, against a good team hoping to rebound in week 2 - SAR. The game also features cross country travel for Thalheimer and their vaunted ground game. SAR really needs this win to avoid sitting at the bottom of the tough Brass Division.
Sunday Night Football:
Carolina v PKay: CBS predicts this one to be the shootout of the week. Carolina may suffer from having to travel across country, but their balance running and throwing should give them options on the road. PKay had some bad matchups in week 1 that may explain a flaccid performance in a loss. For Spencers' sake, lets hope thats the case so they can rebound at home in a win week 2.
Monday Night Football:
Smelters v Sims: The returning champ always gets prime billing. Both teams are 0-1. The winner of this game can dismiss week 1 as early season jitters; the loser has to start rethinking their season. As if the national stage is not motivation enough, both teams have hit the waiver wire in search of the one ingredient to galvanize the attack. This is one to stay up late for...
So sink into the sofa, fire up the laptop to NFFL.com, and enjoy Week 2. Good luck to all,
As always,
Your Commish
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
The Week that Was...
NFFLers:
Bob Dylan wrote the following words in 1963:
The line it is drawn
The curse it is cast
The slow one now
Will later be fast
As the present now
Will later be past
The order is
Rapidly fadin'.
And the first one now
Will later be last
For the times they are a-changin'.
Nothing could more clearly summarize the first week of the NFFL. Though in fairness to Bob Dylan, I think he was hoping the song would have a broader impact.
Regardless, last year ended at Milo's Bar and Bocce Court in St. Louis, MO with Smelters hoisting the Cathode Cup as Year 1 Champs. Team Padnos was there to offer a toast and good humor given that his squad finished a DISTANT last. His record was 2-15, his two wins...pure luck. He was last in scoring, last in transactions, and nowhere near second to last place.
To put Padnos' 128-point week 1 outburst in perspective, consider that last year he cleared 80 points 1 time. He scored less than 40 points twice, and less than 50, 5 times. There was not a consecutive 2 game output from Padnos that would have exceeded 128 points at any point.
Smelters, on the other hand, started last year with 62 points and only went below 100 points twice in the next 10 weeks. His 52-point season opening output this year was less than half his season average from a year ago.
The times are indeed changin'. Or maybe they're not...its only week 1.
Week 1 posted performances that can be broken into three pretty clear groups: High Speed, Semi Red, and Soft Lead.
High Speed:
-Padnos lead the pack with a huge performance from Drew Brees and above average performances from Tom Jones and the Vikings D. In fact, the only team member to be subpar was Brandon Jacobs, and I doubt he'll disappoint very often.
-Carolina - as predicted - went over the century mark (116) on strong efforts from Romo, Hightower, Jennings, and of course Adrian Peterson. I have a feeling this will happen a lot this year.
-Thalheimer - also predicted - posted 114 points on the back of 42! from the Eagles D. Granted, the Eagles D is not going to be the bellcow for Thalheimer all year, but Thalheimer also left 34 points on his bench.
-Dos - Yup, your Commish finished in the High Speed category on the back of a surprising contribution from the running game (who would have predicted 32 points combined from Mike Bell and Fred Jackson?).
-Solomon - Their 101 points came the hard way - with only Reggie Wayne going well beyond projections with 22 points. Like Thalheimer, Solomon lacks a weakness and will likely spend a lot of time in this category.
Semi Red:
-Dynamic - DMS opened with a win on 87 points - a win DuCovna will gladly take over Smelters.
-PSC - PSC also had a solid performance from his team in posting 81 points in a win. Purgatory at 81 points will not satisfy PSC, however. Devon Hester will likely feature in future lineups and boost the production.
-SAR - 76 points may get a victory some weeks, but it wasn't nearly enough this week against Solomon. SAR will get luckier - they had subpar performances from Ron Brown and Clint Portis, as well as an injury to Anthony Gonzalez. There is plenty of fight left in Long Beach.
-Buffalo - The surprising sacking of the Packers D and their 16 pts, plus the start of unproven Pats WR Sam Aiken, left Buffalo marooned on 70 points for the week. A few different lineup selections would have made a difference in points, but not in result. They lost by 46 to Carolina.
Soft Lead
Ansam - 65 points ain't a lot to be excited about. But a look behind the numbers shows that Ansam is unlikely to feature in this section again: Mark Sanchez may be a fantasy stud, and Ray Rice appears to be the man in Baltimore. Add Leon Washington to the mix and Ansam will be a tougher matchup.
PKay - This appears to be bad luck. Noone - literally noone on Team PKay - exceeded expectations in week 1. Its too early to call this a trend - probably more due to matchups - but this is not what Spencer had in mind. Expect trade offers....
SIMS - See note on Pkay above. The only member of Team Sims that showed on Sunday was the Giants D, and you never want your D leadin the week with 20 points. The Commish lives in fear of Sims and their Burnese Mountain Dog mascot. Sims won't be at the bottom very often this year.
Smelters - Oh my. What to say? I should probably let sleeping dogs lie on this one and see if this just a one-off week for Smelters. Last year he had his worst performance in week 1 and never looked back. I don't bet against my buddy and my boss....
The Rail - He lost 128 -45. Thats just nasty. See if Thalheimer will cut you a deal on one of his bench players (unlikely unless you score him a foundry account in the area) and troll the waiver wire like a lobsterman in July.
Until the weekend,
As always,
Your Commish
Bob Dylan wrote the following words in 1963:
The line it is drawn
The curse it is cast
The slow one now
Will later be fast
As the present now
Will later be past
The order is
Rapidly fadin'.
And the first one now
Will later be last
For the times they are a-changin'.
Nothing could more clearly summarize the first week of the NFFL. Though in fairness to Bob Dylan, I think he was hoping the song would have a broader impact.
Regardless, last year ended at Milo's Bar and Bocce Court in St. Louis, MO with Smelters hoisting the Cathode Cup as Year 1 Champs. Team Padnos was there to offer a toast and good humor given that his squad finished a DISTANT last. His record was 2-15, his two wins...pure luck. He was last in scoring, last in transactions, and nowhere near second to last place.
To put Padnos' 128-point week 1 outburst in perspective, consider that last year he cleared 80 points 1 time. He scored less than 40 points twice, and less than 50, 5 times. There was not a consecutive 2 game output from Padnos that would have exceeded 128 points at any point.
Smelters, on the other hand, started last year with 62 points and only went below 100 points twice in the next 10 weeks. His 52-point season opening output this year was less than half his season average from a year ago.
The times are indeed changin'. Or maybe they're not...its only week 1.
Week 1 posted performances that can be broken into three pretty clear groups: High Speed, Semi Red, and Soft Lead.
High Speed:
-Padnos lead the pack with a huge performance from Drew Brees and above average performances from Tom Jones and the Vikings D. In fact, the only team member to be subpar was Brandon Jacobs, and I doubt he'll disappoint very often.
-Carolina - as predicted - went over the century mark (116) on strong efforts from Romo, Hightower, Jennings, and of course Adrian Peterson. I have a feeling this will happen a lot this year.
-Thalheimer - also predicted - posted 114 points on the back of 42! from the Eagles D. Granted, the Eagles D is not going to be the bellcow for Thalheimer all year, but Thalheimer also left 34 points on his bench.
-Dos - Yup, your Commish finished in the High Speed category on the back of a surprising contribution from the running game (who would have predicted 32 points combined from Mike Bell and Fred Jackson?).
-Solomon - Their 101 points came the hard way - with only Reggie Wayne going well beyond projections with 22 points. Like Thalheimer, Solomon lacks a weakness and will likely spend a lot of time in this category.
Semi Red:
-Dynamic - DMS opened with a win on 87 points - a win DuCovna will gladly take over Smelters.
-PSC - PSC also had a solid performance from his team in posting 81 points in a win. Purgatory at 81 points will not satisfy PSC, however. Devon Hester will likely feature in future lineups and boost the production.
-SAR - 76 points may get a victory some weeks, but it wasn't nearly enough this week against Solomon. SAR will get luckier - they had subpar performances from Ron Brown and Clint Portis, as well as an injury to Anthony Gonzalez. There is plenty of fight left in Long Beach.
-Buffalo - The surprising sacking of the Packers D and their 16 pts, plus the start of unproven Pats WR Sam Aiken, left Buffalo marooned on 70 points for the week. A few different lineup selections would have made a difference in points, but not in result. They lost by 46 to Carolina.
Soft Lead
Ansam - 65 points ain't a lot to be excited about. But a look behind the numbers shows that Ansam is unlikely to feature in this section again: Mark Sanchez may be a fantasy stud, and Ray Rice appears to be the man in Baltimore. Add Leon Washington to the mix and Ansam will be a tougher matchup.
PKay - This appears to be bad luck. Noone - literally noone on Team PKay - exceeded expectations in week 1. Its too early to call this a trend - probably more due to matchups - but this is not what Spencer had in mind. Expect trade offers....
SIMS - See note on Pkay above. The only member of Team Sims that showed on Sunday was the Giants D, and you never want your D leadin the week with 20 points. The Commish lives in fear of Sims and their Burnese Mountain Dog mascot. Sims won't be at the bottom very often this year.
Smelters - Oh my. What to say? I should probably let sleeping dogs lie on this one and see if this just a one-off week for Smelters. Last year he had his worst performance in week 1 and never looked back. I don't bet against my buddy and my boss....
The Rail - He lost 128 -45. Thats just nasty. See if Thalheimer will cut you a deal on one of his bench players (unlikely unless you score him a foundry account in the area) and troll the waiver wire like a lobsterman in July.
Until the weekend,
As always,
Your Commish
Let the Wild Rumpus Begin Part 2....
Here we go. This is the best week of the season for fantasy football. For the most part, our teams are healthy, our expectations immense, and our matchups are all good. Its really hard not to be excited. Of course, nothing feels worse than the end of Week 1 when we realize our 3rd round draft pick has fallen in the depth chart and our starting QB has a nagging shoulder issue. For the time being though - we're all in the hunt for the Cathode Cup.
So lets get on to the Week 1 tilt:
- Dynamic is favored by almost 60! against Cathode Cup winner Smelters. This would be a universe altering event and we predict CBS is way off. There are only a few things in life that we know for sure: its impossible to win a land war in Asia, and; Smelters doesn't lose by 60. Dynamic may win - but it will be close.
-Padnos and Progress Rail are slated for a high scoring matchup that hinges on whether Padnos' Drew Brees or Rails Terrell Owens can run amok. CBS predicts both teams over 100. The Commish knows better - this will be low scoring and close;
-Carolina spotted Buffalo 16 points from the Thursday night game and enters the weekend behind. Carolina's matchups are not the best - except for one: Adrian Peterson v. Browns Defense. Pencil AP in for 30 fantasy points. We'll see if its enough to overcome Metalico Buffalo and their merry band of Tight Ends;
-Ansam Metals took a lot of stick in the draft room for loading up on J E T S, Jets, Jets, Jets. But look closely at this team - Zager was running a bait-and-switch on us; Ray Rice, Pats D, and Jason Witten have awesome matchups. If Mark Dirty Sanchez does anything at all at home against Houston, Ansam could sneak a Week 1 upset of Team PSC;
-PKay and Dos are also predicted to go over 100 points apiece. PKay has the makings of a team that can actually do it; Dos, not so much. Dos has a great passing game and a solid D. The running game features two guys (Fred Jackson and Mike Bell) who most people - including Dos ownership - have never heard of before. This should be a good week to be PKay.
There are two matchups that are too close to call:
Thal v Sims and SAR v Sol
Thal v Sims
On the face of it, the Commish thinks these two teams walked away from the draft as loaded as Homer Simpson. Team Thalheimer is so talented they look like a shoe-in to win the Cheadle for leaving the most points on the bench. Starting studs Julius Jones, Cadillac Williams, and Anquan Boldin are on the bench - you should see his starters!!! Sims features the most balance in the league - the only real question mark being Matt Straub's start at New York. Based on matchups only - Thal should escape this Week 1 slugfest.
SAR v Sol
League newby Team Solomon has joined the scene with lots of fantasy experience and a solid squad. Team SAR was drafted by Keizler brother Allen, and looks good on paper. We know from last year that CBS maintains a strong west coast bias, so it should come as no surprise that SAR is a 10 point favorite going into the game. However, Solomon scored big with Tennessee's D on Thursday night and set a fast pace for the rest of the week. Their primary concern has to be whether Willie Parker was worth a start (he managed 1 point)....they will only know that if the running back they benched in favor of Parker - Fred Taylor - does well at home against the Bills. Its nail biting time in Lynn, Mass.
So let the wild rumpus begin; I hope everyone has a great weekend of work, family, and the NFFL (not necessarily in that order).
Your Commish.
So lets get on to the Week 1 tilt:
- Dynamic is favored by almost 60! against Cathode Cup winner Smelters. This would be a universe altering event and we predict CBS is way off. There are only a few things in life that we know for sure: its impossible to win a land war in Asia, and; Smelters doesn't lose by 60. Dynamic may win - but it will be close.
-Padnos and Progress Rail are slated for a high scoring matchup that hinges on whether Padnos' Drew Brees or Rails Terrell Owens can run amok. CBS predicts both teams over 100. The Commish knows better - this will be low scoring and close;
-Carolina spotted Buffalo 16 points from the Thursday night game and enters the weekend behind. Carolina's matchups are not the best - except for one: Adrian Peterson v. Browns Defense. Pencil AP in for 30 fantasy points. We'll see if its enough to overcome Metalico Buffalo and their merry band of Tight Ends;
-Ansam Metals took a lot of stick in the draft room for loading up on J E T S, Jets, Jets, Jets. But look closely at this team - Zager was running a bait-and-switch on us; Ray Rice, Pats D, and Jason Witten have awesome matchups. If Mark Dirty Sanchez does anything at all at home against Houston, Ansam could sneak a Week 1 upset of Team PSC;
-PKay and Dos are also predicted to go over 100 points apiece. PKay has the makings of a team that can actually do it; Dos, not so much. Dos has a great passing game and a solid D. The running game features two guys (Fred Jackson and Mike Bell) who most people - including Dos ownership - have never heard of before. This should be a good week to be PKay.
There are two matchups that are too close to call:
Thal v Sims and SAR v Sol
Thal v Sims
On the face of it, the Commish thinks these two teams walked away from the draft as loaded as Homer Simpson. Team Thalheimer is so talented they look like a shoe-in to win the Cheadle for leaving the most points on the bench. Starting studs Julius Jones, Cadillac Williams, and Anquan Boldin are on the bench - you should see his starters!!! Sims features the most balance in the league - the only real question mark being Matt Straub's start at New York. Based on matchups only - Thal should escape this Week 1 slugfest.
SAR v Sol
League newby Team Solomon has joined the scene with lots of fantasy experience and a solid squad. Team SAR was drafted by Keizler brother Allen, and looks good on paper. We know from last year that CBS maintains a strong west coast bias, so it should come as no surprise that SAR is a 10 point favorite going into the game. However, Solomon scored big with Tennessee's D on Thursday night and set a fast pace for the rest of the week. Their primary concern has to be whether Willie Parker was worth a start (he managed 1 point)....they will only know that if the running back they benched in favor of Parker - Fred Taylor - does well at home against the Bills. Its nail biting time in Lynn, Mass.
So let the wild rumpus begin; I hope everyone has a great weekend of work, family, and the NFFL (not necessarily in that order).
Your Commish.
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